A Cursory Look at
Pakistan Demographic Survey 2020
Recently, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) released Pakistan Demographic Survey (PDS) 2020 – the twentieth round of a series of surveys – that provides detailed information on various demographic indicators at national level with urban-rural breakdowns. These indicators are Life Expectancy, Crude Birth Rate, Crude Death Rate, General Fertility Rate, Age Specific Fertility Rates, Age Specific Death Rates, Infant Mortality Rate and Rate of Natural Increase, etc. The Survey has unveiled some important revelations on Pakistan’s demographic data for the years 2018-2020.
According to the Survey Pakistan’s total population stands at 220.42 million as compared to 207.6 million in 2017. The population includes 111.69 million males and 108.73 million females. The total count in the Survey included 81.01 million urban and 139.41 million rural population. The proportion of old persons (65 years and over) is quite low. Only about three to four percent of population falls in this age group. Majority of the population lies in the age group 15-64, i.e. 57.18 percent males and 57.78 percent females.
Meanwhile, life expectancy – the average number of years a person is expected to live – has witnessed a slight decline and has been calculated at 65 years, depicting a decline as compared to Pakistan Maternal Mortality Survey (PMMS)-2019 which had placed it at 65.4 years. The latest figures showed that although the overall life expectancy has dropped, it rose among men from 64.3 to 64.5. For women, it fell from 66.5 to 65.5 but was still higher than for men. Life expectancy also increased for the 1-4 age group to 71.3, including 70.6 for males and 72 for females.
The life expectancy has increased for age 1-4 both for males and females i.e. 70.6 and 72 respectively and 71.3 overall.
Females have lower death rates than males for most ages especially a slight bump in mortality of men aged 25-29 can be seen which may be because of increased risky behaviour and subsequent deaths due to accidents.
The Survey notes Sex and Age Specific Death Rate shows that after age 1, the mortality rate falls gradually, attaining minimum risk at age 10 the mortality rate is very low during childhood, then increases exponentially from age 30.
The Survey indicated that infant mortality rate was declining in Pakistan, as it was 62 in Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) 2017-18, 60 in Pakistan Standard of Living Standards Measurement Survey (PSLM) 2018-19, and now it is 56 for PDS-2020 but it is still higher.
The probability of dying between birth and first birthday is much higher in rural areas 59 as compare to urban areas 50 due to better Neo- Natal and Post-Natal facilities. Male Infant Mortality Rate is 58 which is higher than female Infant Mortality Rate of 55 in all areas.
The Crude Death Rate, i.e. the number of deaths during a year per 1000 persons has been calculated at 6.7 whereas the Infant Mortality Rate, i.e. the number of deaths of infants under age 1 per 1000 live births in a given year is 56.
According to the survey issued by PBS, the Rate of Natural Increase, i.e. difference between the Crude Birth Rate and Crude Death Rate has been recorded at 2.
The survey calculated the Total Fertility Rate that is mean number of children a woman have by age 50 at 3.7. While the general fertility rate was 124, the age-specific data shows the rate was highest in the 25-29 age group at 215, followed by 176 in the 20-24 age group, 164 in the 30-34 age group, and 94 in the 35-39 age group. This last age group (35-39) also saw the most significant jump when compared with the PDHS figure of 79.
The general fertility rate was also quite higher in rural areas (138) compared to urban areas (102).
The writer is a member of staff.