Jahangir's World Times First Comprehensive Magazine for students/teachers of competitive exams and general readers as well.
The trust deficit between Pakistan and the US caused during the first term of President Obama in office needs to be repaired in his second tenure.
The growing crisis results in an opportunity to do something great. Events demand and the world pins hopes on the focal person. And President Obama as a focal person has soon to finalize the next phase of the drawdown of US troops in Afghanistan. Though Afghanistan is still in a formative phase, he has to pull out – which must not take more than a year – for security of the US troops. This is an unfulfilled commitment that he has inherited from his first-term election campaign and, hence, it is obligatory for him to do so now. Previously, the withdrawal of troops was an option but now it is a compulsion.
President Barack Obama has to remain as the US president after 2014 for two more years. The 2015 and 2016 years will be the time for fixing and rehabilitating the US foreign and defence policy which till this time was running on war footing. It is time of crisis for President Obama, but it is also the time when he will have his name written in history as the saviour of his nation.
It is no denying the fact that the death of Osama bin Laden during the Obama administration will go down into history as a crowing feather for his presidential term. His policies greatly damaged and fractured the al-Qaeda’s chain of command, and after Osama’s death, al-Qaeda’s activities have been checked. However, terrorism in North Africa and Pakistan still remains a real threat. Yet Obama still has got his own choices. Now some questions perturb thinking minds: will Obama continue with the use of drones, or will he resort to the policy of diplomacy?
The trust deficit between Pakistan and the US caused during the first term of President Obama in office needs to be repaired in his second tenure. Problems like the Raymond Davis case, the May 2 incident, the Salala incident, and the blasphemous movie coupled with sketches have adversely affected the Pakistan-US relations. On the other hand, smooth withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan is not possible without consistent and cordial help from Pakistan. Hence, trust must be revamped with Pakistan for a successful endgame in Afghanistan. Pakistan – a strategically located country, a nuclear power, a victim of religious extremism and a country facing two front-border crisis (one from India and the other from the Taliban-al Qaeda nexus) – deserves extra care and help by the comity of nations. Any serious threat to Pakistan’s national security would ultimately hurt the US foreign and defence policies in the region. This, in turn, will lead to shake the US national defence. Wars are fought to protect and secure a homeland. Sometimes risk for an ally is congruent to one’s own security. Hence, Pakistan’s security is directly related to the US national defence and its global interests. That is the realization that former US presidents like Bush Senior, Bill Clinton and Bush Junior had failed to understand. This is high time that Pakistan is given due importance in the endgame in Afghanistan.
President Obama has a clear vision about his policy vis-Ã -vis India: strengthening security and military cooperation, boosting trade, and encouraging New Delhi’s collaboration on various regional and global issues will remain cordial. During a recent East-Asia Summit in Cambodia, President Obama told Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that ‘India is a big part of my plans’ for the second term. This shows his keen interest in India.
Iran’s nuclear programme has always been an irritant between Washington D.C. and Tehran. Before Obama’s first term, the US administration had remained very hard on Iranian nuclear ambitions. However, Obama, in his first inaugural speech adopted a soft approach to break the ice. He said the US would ‘extend a hand if you are willing to un-clench your fist.’ Such a gesture was a signal to try the diplomacy first to proceed on talking about the nuclear standoff between the two countries. The West accuses Tehran of using its nuclear enrichment programme to try to build a nuclear weapon while Iran insists its nuclear programme is meant for purely peaceful purposes. To-date, the Ayatollahs never showed any change in softening their mood for talks on Iran’s nuclear programme. This mustered the toughest US sanctions against Iran. According to President Obama, the US administration had ‘organized the strongest coalition and the strongest sanctions against Iran in history, and it is crippling their economy. Their currency has dropped 80 per cent. Their oil production has plunged to the lowest level since they were fighting a war with Iraq 20 years ago. So their economy is in a shambles.’
With the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, Obama will never engage the US in any new military adventure in the region. However, a nuclear Iran has never been and will never be acceptable to the US and its allies. This will further expedite the joint US and European extremely tough sanctions and talks with Tehran. And if sanctions and negotiations fail, the prospects of the US supported military action will grow. This may trigger a regional imbalance between Iran and Israel. On the other hand, Russia is fully backing Tehran. Indeed, dealing with Iran will be a foreign policy challenge to Obama during his second term’s last days.
This has been a very common practice in the post-Cold War era that any country offended by the US takes refuge in enjoying support from Russia. From the defiant Iran on its nuclear programme to ruthless killings in Syria and to certain hawkish elements in Afghanistan, all are enjoying implicit or explicit support of Russia. Such Russian approach reflects that if it cannot break, it is still in a position to shake a successful game into a greater loss for the US. President Vladimir Putin, a former head of the former Soviet Union’s KGB still has the hatred legacy of the Cold War in his mind. Recently, Moscow and Washington D.C. have been on a very bumpy ride on the Syrian question.
It appears that President Obama will use his second term for a profound rendezvous with Asia – the withdrawal of the US troops, ensuring US economic and trade interests in the region. However, all that depends on local actors. Pakistan is one of the prime actors to serve the US interests in the region, if it is not annoyed. The appointment of John Carry as the Secretary of State is also a very positive development. He has travelled extensively in the region and knows the dynamics of local politics. He can work to keep the upset ‘friends’ pleased. This can happen only if a policy for reconciliation and a shift from high politics to low politics is adopted for a lasting peace in the long run.
