US-China Cold War

Mehboob Hussain Babar

In 1949, Chinese Communist Party leader Mao Zedong installed ‘Communist Government’ in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The United States refused to recognize this new government and continued to recognize and support Chiang Kai-shek’s exiled Republic of China government in Taipei. In 1950, during the Korean War, the US and PRC armed forces clashed. During the 1960s, the United States was riled at PRC’s support and aid to North Vietnam during the Vietnam War.

From 1970s onward, both countries experienced normal relations especially after US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s secret diplomatic mission to Beijing in 1971. Then, in 1972, the landmark visit of President Nixon to China came as a dramatic first step toward normalizing relations with the PRC. The normalization of relations culminated in 1979, when the United States established full diplomatic relations with the PRC. Notwithstanding these developments, China followed a policy of ‘non-confrontation’ that allowed it to build its incredible economic and military might. At a time, when China was making progress by leaps and bounds, the US was busy fighting wars all over the world. Neither China challenged the US-led world order nor did it indulge itself in futile wars. Consequently, at the global landscape, China has emerged as a country ready to replace US as the world superpower and upend the world order. Following the policy of non-confrontation, China didn’t retaliate for any hostile action by its enemy; but, no more; China is now responding vigorously to every step taken by its rivals.

Causes of New Cold War

According to statistics released by the International Monitory Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, China will surpass the United States as the world’s largest economy in 2024, therefore, the pain US is going through can be termed as the birth pangs of a new world order led by China. That’s why, US is in combative mood vis-à-vis China. Today, US-China ties have advanced from uptight standoffs to a complex blend of intensifying diplomacy, growing international rivalry and increasingly intertwined economies – reminiscent of the 20th century cold war between the then-Soviet Union and the United States. Under President Trump, the rancour between the US and China is aggravating in domains, inter alia, defence, human rights, trade, technology, media and diplomacy, that is evident in the escalation of actions and reprisals by both sides.

After the spread of coronavirus to almost across the globe, World Health Organization (WHO) designated the novel coronavirus disease, i.e. Covid-19, outbreak as a pandemic. Since then, leading officials from both China and the United States have been blaming each other for the outbreak of the pandemic. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson even claimed that the US military contingent brought the virus to the Chinese city Wuhan, while President Trump made repeated references to the “Chinese virus,” which he thinks spread because of failures on the part of the Chinese government.

The United States has also persistently rebuked China for the forced sterilization of Uyghur women, lobbied Europe to ban Chinese security screening firm Nuctech; imposed visa restrictions on Chinese officials held responsible for Hong Kong’s new National Security Law; and placed 90-day limits on work visas for Chinese journalists. In response, while bluntly telling Washington to butt out of Hong Kong affairs, China’s Foreign Ministry branded US criticism of its Uyghur policy as “baseless”. Prior to this, China had withdrawn the press credentials of journalists at three leading US newspapers and warned to put American companies on a list of proscribed foreign entities. Moreover, in July 2020, the United States ordered China to close its consulate in Houston, Texas, alleging that it was a hub of espionage and intellectual property theft. In response, China not only condemned the order but also retaliated by closing the US consulate in Chengdu. In the same month, Washington indicted two Chinese hackers for allegedly stealing coronavirus vaccine research and sanctions and eleven Chinese companies for their reported role in human rights abuses in Xinjiang.

For the Chinese government, American actions constitute blatant interference in its internal affairs—a grievance with deep-seated roots going back to its struggles with imperialist powers in the 19th century.

Similarities with US-Soviet Cold War

There are six clear parallels of the current state of relations between China and the United States with the US-Soviet Cold War.

1. Sino-US conflict is between the world’s two most powerful states—one a liberal democracy and the other avowedly communist.
2. It is a system-wide rivalry for hegemony and supremacy.
3. It is about communist and democratic values as well as power.
4. It will be an almost three-decade contest for global ascendancy.
5. A geopolitical bifurcation of the world is likely.
6. Neither side wants a full-scale war, especially when both states have nukes.

Impact on South Asia’s Geopolitics

During the Cold War, US adopted the ‘policy of containment’ against the Soviet Union but this time, it is for China. Following the ‘Marshal Plan’ during the Cold War, the US is now investing heavily in India, inking multiple agreements from technology advancement to economic boom and military strength to countering Chinese influence in the region. On the other hand, China is negotiating strategic pacts and economic deals with America’s main adversary, that is, Iran, to undermine India’s growing influence there and in Afghanistan. Due to the Sino-US cold war, South Asia is undergoing phenomenal changes as one direct impact has been ejection of India from Iran’s major strategic projects, especially those related to Chabahar Port project– once touted as rival Pakistan’s Gwadar and ultimately CPEC project in the long run.

Recently, during his visit to the United Kingdom, US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, called for a global coalition to confront China. His assertion also shows how regional groupings matter most in the present context, since they allow countries to tap into each other’s strengths and resources. That is why China’s deal with Iran, which is also pretty unfairly sidelined by the US authorities, makes so much sense. Iran showed its willing to be part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); therefore, the Chinese are at the centre of the biggest projects in the region and all members of the alliances they build in the process will benefit from them. Chinese presence in Iran will not only extend its dominance over the Middle East, but will also have check over the Indian activities in Iran. It may even provide a base for Iran and Pakistan to come together and build a healthy bilateral relationship. Further, in June 2020, in a significant show of economic diplomacy in South Asia, China announced tariff exemption for 97% of exports from Bangladesh—a “major success” in Dhaka-Beijing relationship. On the other hand, despite repeated requests for a meeting in the last four months, the Bangladeshi Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, has not met India’s High Commissioner—signs of strained relations with New Delhi and a shift for closer ties with Pakistan and China. Moreover, all Indian projects in Bangladesh have slowed down since the re-election of Prime Minister Hasina in 2019 with Chinese infrastructure projects receiving more support from Dhaka. China also has a violent clash at the Line of Actual Control with India. This marks the significant change in China’s decades-old approach of making peaceful economic progress to getting involved into regional or global conflicts.

Implications for Pakistan

US-China cold war will force Pakistan to negotiate the strategic interests of the two competing superpowers, becoming a frontline state in the emerging conflict. How Pakistan plays its cards in this game will determine the future of its economy, foreign policy and democracy, at least for the next few decades. The United States is Pakistan’s largest export destination, but China is Pakistan’s largest foreign investor. Thus, Pakistan is in troubled waters because the two economic giants will emerge in this cold war, one led by the capitalist USA, and the other by communists China. It will be hard for Pakistan to pick a side navigating its landscape because there will be no easy trade-offs.

This new cold war already poses serious challenges to Pakistan. Bilaterally, the US has sanctioned Pakistan, withheld its Coalition Support Funds, levelled allegations of supporting terrorism and demanded a freeze on its strategic capabilities with no such demand being made on India. The US also strongly opposed our relations with China, especially implementation of CPEC as part of the BRI since this would neutralize American attempts to contain China. Resultantly, Washington is trying to undermine CPEC through multilateral financial institutions, supporting Indian claims that CPEC passes through ‘disputed territory’ and encouraging opposition to CPEC within Pakistan. America has made a strategic calculation to support India’s rise as a regional hegemon, to counterbalance China. This will create an interesting dynamic where Pakistan and China stand on one side on issues like Kashmir, while the US and India stand on the other side. In this situation, Pakistan should pursue political, economic and security engagements with China, Bangladesh and Iran, by broadening its relations with these countries—and with Russia too. In foreseeable future, Pakistan would have cold relations with the US because of shifting power paradigms. In this situation, the best Pakistan can achieve is conflict prevention. For this, it must ensure credible deterrence in response to the Indian military buildup.

Conclusion

The ongoing cold war is considerably different and more drastic from that between the United States and the Soviet Union. Instead of a bipolar US-Soviet conflict with prominent defense alliances, NATO and the Warsaw Pact, there are now three powers contesting for power with shifting alliances. For now, China and Russia see merit in a strategic partnership against America whereas America’s allies are uncertain about Trump’s commitment to their security. From the end of the cold war in 1990 to an America-dominated unipolar world till 2008, the global order has changed from bipolar to a more complicated and complex multi-polar. Trump’s drive to ‘Make America Great Again’ implicitly acknowledged that the US had lost its supreme global position. Thus, it has put an embargo on Russia and started a trade war with China. But, now China is not only strongly retaliating but has also started challenging the US and its allies. The proposed long-term strategic partnership with Iran is the best manifestation of Chinese new approach in global geopolitics. Therefore, if tensions between the two countries escalate in the coming years, polarization in the world will increase.