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In Pakistan, some political thinkers have hoped the emergence of third political force. Undoubtedly, Imran Khan is that force. But it would be nave to think that the PTI would wipe out the main political parties.
In the last week of October the country’s political scene remained highly vibrant with one party after the other announcing and holding rallies as show of their strength. The first one was by Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) at Bhatti Chowk, Lahore, on October 28 in which Punjab Chief Minister used harsh language against President Zardari and condemned the federal government for not delivering. Only two days later Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) organized rallies in Lahore and Karachi respectively.
A couple of days prior to the event, the historic city of Lahore presented the look of a polling booth. Countless banners, posters and hoardings bearing pictures of Punjab CM as well as PTI chairman seemed to have become part of the city landscape. Both the parties used the electronic media as well urging the general public to attend the rallies.
A renowned pop singer Abrarul Haq, known also for his trust hospital surprised every one when he took to his ‘Save Pakistan’ rally in Lahore just a day ahead of PML-N’ s rally. Abrar’s rally failed to create any impact. However, it was reflective of his political intentions. Recently, he has announced that he would soon join a political party to take active part in politics.
PML-N rally was in retrospect only. The rally was seen as a clear response to the PTI rally. It was taken by many as an attempt to prove that PML-N was still the strongest player in the province. The PML-N rally became a subject of criticism when its leader and the Punjab Chief Minister Mian Shahbaz Sharif addressed it. PML-N, thereafter, suffered tough time. Instead of getting any tangible results out of this move, it rather proved to be counter-productive. Undoubtedly the rally was non-starter. Instead of saying anything against Imran Khan which essentially was the purpose of the rally, PML-N leaders focused on president Zardari and went to the level of using abusive language against him.
The PML-N rally provoked another rally in Karachi led by MQM. The rally was aimed at protesting against the language used against president Zardari and in support of democracy. The rally reflected yet again the nature of relationship which exists between PPP and MQM. It was also dubbed as ‘rent a rally’ by a prominent PML-N leader.
The PML-N was reported to have used the government machinery to make his rally a success. The employees of Parks and Horticulture Authority (PHA) and the City District Government Lahore (CDGL) were seen distributing the PML-N flags among their colleagues prior to the start of rally. Punjab Governor Latif Khosa is reported to have forwarded a secret report to the federal government about Punjab government’s orders to different provincial departments to provide manpower for October 28 rally.
At present PML-N seems to be highly confused and frustrated. The decision of holding the rally two days prior to PTI was manifestation of sheer frustration and it must have felt its consequences after the unexpected and successful show of power by the latter. The turnout stunned many Pakistani analysts who view PTI as a one-man show with a following far too narrow to dent Pakistan’s entrenched political landscape.
Imran khan’s rally would be viewed as watershed in Pakistani politics in future. It has been trend-setter in many ways. For the first time educated middle class showed keen interest in politics. Many among those present at the rally admitted that they have never been part of any political meeting before this. Presence of families in such a large number was never witnessed before this. This is reflective of the fact that the people at large have gone conscious politically which is good omen for future of democracy in Pakistan.
The New York Times said, ‘The rally represented what supporters and some political analysts said was Khan’s emergence as a serious challenger to the governing PPP and its longtime rival, the Pakistan Muslim League-N’. ‘The size of the crowd that Khan drew in Lahore … surprised his opponents and made an impression on political analysts’, the Times wrote. The atmosphere at the Sunday rally was electric. Several famous pop singers warmed up the crowd with music before Khan’s speech, giving the rally the feel of a concert. Women and girls in colourful clothes and sunglasses and young men in Western and national dress filled the audience.
Imran Khan launched the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf in 1996. Mr. Khan led the Pakistani cricket team to famous world cup victory in 1992. For fifteen years he has made untiring efforts to make a mark in the political arena. Resultantly, his doggedness appears to be paying him off. ‘During the last decade I went through some of the most painful and difficult phases in my life, but I always slept well, confident within myself that resistance I was facing was to strengthen me to achieve my goals’ he writes in his recently published autobiography.
There is no denying the fact that PTI workers took this meeting as a challenge and left no stone unturned to make it a success. However Imran Khan has some advantages. It is not only anti-status quo fatigue he could benefit from. All the major political parties are part of one government or the other. There is practically no political party in the country. If there is any, it is Imran Khan’s PTI.
In her article ‘Imran’s moment of opportunity?’, Dr Maleeha Lodhi pointed out some critical changes which have taken place in the demography of urban population in the country. Among different changes such as the spread of information technology and expansion of the broadcast media, the most important, and certainly the decisive one, is the emergence of a middle-class which is more vocal and has a bigger role to play in the future politics of Pakistan. Imran Khan has a golden opportunity to align with this emerging middle-class.
Preferring to remain on the political sidelines, as indicated by low voter turnout in urban middle class localities, one can now gauge a renewed sense of responsibility amongst the members of this class. Change is required, they believe, and it will be brought about by direct participation.
For some analysts, Imran Khan’s rally in Lahore, which saw large-scale participation of the same social segment, was the logical culmination of this new political awakening. What is more telling is that till his recent political spectacle, Imran Khan’s PTI was often dismissed as a ‘Facebook party’ ‘an obvious pun at the social demographic it appealed to (around 5 million Facebook users in the country), and its lack of presence on the ground.
But bringing out members of this new middle class from the comfort of their suburban existence, onto the road using social media messaging, and placing them shoulder-to-shoulder with hardened political segments, is something that has contributed to changing perceptions about both Imran Khan, and the role played by new media in politics. In the 1970s and 1980s Air Marshal (retd) Asghar Khan represented the interest of the middle class. Unluckily, the size of the class was very small then and it was least interested in politics as well. Imran in this connection seems to be lucky that his timing is right.
Shafqat Mahmood, a renowned columnist, writes in his article entitled ‘A great boost to democracy’, ‘It has been a long-time coming, but finally Imran has won a seat at the high table of politics. The crowd attracted by him in Lahore was massive. It may have been the largest crowd ever attracted to Minar-e-Pakistan. And that, given its history of mass rallies, is saying a lot.’ (Shafqat has now joined the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf)
Imran Khan today is looking like a realistic option available to the people who are fed up with the traditional heavyweights. He is attracting sizeable crowds in urban Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The media as usual is providing him respectable coverage. The recent developments have forced his political opponents to take him seriously. Imran Khan has finally made his mark in the political arena.
When the present political dispensation took over, it was expected that the chequred political history and the changed attitude of the people would force the ruling elite to mend their ways but people in return faced crippling inflation, load-shedding, gas outages and dwindling economic activities. The already tainted reputations of the ruling elite have been further tarnished by corruption and nepotism. These are the features which define the existing political system in Pakistan. People can no longer be pacified by mere rhetoric.
Amid these circumstances, Imran’s call for change is being welcomed by every one. The reason being that they are fed up with the present political dispensation and the existing system which is largely based on patronage. Imran Khan, in contrast, is highly credible man. He established a world class cancer hospital and Namal university in Mianwali. Both the institutions are rendering valuable services primarily to the disadvantaged sections of the population. This is indicative of single-mindedness of his cause.
There is no denying the fact that Imran’s efforts have led to the mobilization of the educated middle-income sections of Lahore in a manner that has never been witnessed before. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto had their following among the lower middle and the low-income sections of the society. Contrarily, Imran Khan has emerged as a leader of the educated middle class.
The dynamics of elections are much different from organizing a rally. If Imran Khan chooses to rest on the laurels of having organized huge crowds in cities and ignore the mobilization of his support in the rural areas, he may not translate his popularity into electoral victory. In Pakistan some political thinkers have hoped the emergence of third political force. Undoubtedly, Imran Khan is that force. But it would be nave to think that the PTI would wipe out the main political parties.
Let us have a look at the public support which Imran Khan enjoys in different parts of the country. At present Imran khan’s ratings are high among the cities of central and northern Punjab and KPK but he has to get support from the southern Punjab. The news has it that some politicians from the south are likely to join PTI which would be a great boost to the party in the area.
So far as Sindh is concerned, Imran Khan’s chances of wide spread support are dim because urban Sindh is stronghold of MQM and rural Sindh traditionally, has not supported a non-Sindhi political leader. Balochistan is still a barren land for Imran Khan. Given the political landscape of the country, doing well in parts of Punjab and KPK is not enough.
Trying to get wider support would also require a degree of humility. Politics is all about increasing friends and influencing people. It is not enough to look like a winner and wait for others to come in. And certainly counter-productive if the old guards look sneeringly at those wanting to join him’ writes Shafqat Mahmood in his article entitled, ‘A great boost to democracy’. Imran’s appeal is largely based on his rejection of the forces of the status quo. Being a credible person, he is taken as a clean alternative to the corrupt mafia. He will face enormous difficulties if he decides to align with people his supporters see as discredited. So, he will have to be highly careful while awarding party tickets to the candidates.
Imran’s electoral prospects can be somewhere between the two extremes: One being painted by himself and the other by his political opponents. He is highly optimistic and predicts a tsunami of support which will sweep his party into power. He, of course, refers to the electoral victory of PPP in 1970. On the other hand, his political opponents predict his total wipeout. They claim that he may bay a handful of seats. ‘It took him 15-years to fill up the Iqbal Park; he might need another few years to fill the assembly and win a majority of National Assembly seats. To have a Jalsa is one thing but election campaign is a different ballgame altogether. In a generous estimate, I will give him 25 seats’ says Nusrat Javed.
There is no blinking the fact that issue of team and candidates haunts Imran Khan. He will need people who have capability to attract their own rotes. Charisma alone does not work in a traditional thana/katcheri politics. Main political parties have deep roots in the existing political system. Imran Khan seems to have understood this electoral reality. Quite contrary to his earlier stance, he has started reaching out to the ‘electables’. Mian Azhar is first such politician bagged by Imran. To justify this flexibility in the choice of his candidate, he is of the view that he will accept the politicians as long as they have good reputations.
In Pakistan if you remain successful in convincing the people in general and the politicians in particular that you can form the meet government, they will come to join you in great numbers. After big rallies in Gujranwala and Faisalabad, the events started turning in favour of PTI and have started given this impression. After the historic rally of October 30, the ‘electables’ are showing keen interest to join PTI. When the ‘electables’ join PTI, the political opponents especially PML-N start blaming that Imran Khan is being backed by the establishment. ‘He is being propped by the GHQ’ says a PML-N supporter during its rally on October 28.
Rural areas are still a barren land for Imran Khan. He will have to devise a comprehensive strategy to mobilize public support in the rural areas because rural seats in the parliament still outnumber the urban area. PTI so far has no significant structures in the rural areas, not even in the rural areas of Punjab where the party has the strongest support base.
Imran is also blamed not to have any clear vision to put the country on the path of progress and prosperity. While addressing to the rally, he said that ‘Thanedars’ will be elected. It is indicative of the frightening lack of understanding of the ground realities. Arif Nizami, the editor of Pakistan Today, has expressed his disappointment after reading a plan as to what PTI would do in first 100 days if it comes into power. So the PTI should come forward with well-defined plan of action aimed at bringing Pakistan out of the trouble it is in.
Keeping in view his politics and the political supporters, transforming popularity into the electoral victory would be an uphill task. However given the pace of the events taking place in the political field, nothing can be ruled out. With his successful rally, Imran Khan has emerged as a serious and mature politician. He is being viewed by the public at large as the best available option against the repeatedly tested politicians. Given his glorious track record, he has got the ability to translate dreams into reality. If Yousaf Raza Gilani and Nawaz Sharif can make it to the Prime Minister House, why can not Imran Khan?
