Why the US won’t attack North Korea, An analysis of the biggest five reasons

Washington’s recent doubling down on aggressive military posturing has led to wide speculation that Pyongyang could be the next target for unilateral action. Even though the administration has indicated that military option is among the options under review, there are many signs that North Korea is not Syria – as military action against the former carries far greater risks.

1. The Korean War Armistice

The Korean Peninsula technically remains in a state of war. Fighting halted on July 27, 1953 under an armistice signed by military commanders from China and North Korea on one side, with the US-led United Nations Command signing on behalf of the international community. The agreement provided for: (a) a suspension of open hostilities, (b) a fixed demarcation line with a 4km (2.4 miles) buffer zone – the so-called demilitarisation zone, and (c) A mechanism for the transfer of prisoners of war. If the US initiated an attack, it would break the treaty endorsed by the United Nations.

2. Nuclear Weapons

North Korea’s nuclear weapons capabilities have matured in recent years. Pyongyang has conducted five nuclear tests and claims it has successfully “miniaturised” nuclear warheads – though such claims have never been independently verified. It experienced a series of embarrassing failures while launching the Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile last year. Despite that, military experts believe that North Korea learnt from those setbacks and might even be able to develop a nuclear-tipped, intercontinental ballistic missile that can reach the United States within the coming four years, during Trump Presidency.

3. The China Factor

China is North Korea’s ally. In 1961, the two countries signed the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty, in which both parties are obliged to offer immediate military and other assistance to the other in the case of an outside attack. This treaty has been prolonged twice, and is valid until 2021. It is probably the biggest deterrence for North Korea against any American attack.

4. China’s Interests

China is concerned that its border provinces would be inundated with North Korean refugees if the Kim regime collapsed. From a geopolitical point of view, Beijing views North Korea as a buffer zone from the potential encroachment by powers are aligned with the US, including Japan and South Korea.

5. Emphasis on peaceful Resolution

Both South Korea and Japan prefer non-military option. The South Korean capital, Seoul, is only about 40km from the border and is particularly vulnerable to North Korean attack. The US cannot protect Seoul, at least for the first 24 hours of a war, and maybe for the first 48. Even though former US president Bill Clinton seriously debated bombing the Yongbyon reactor in 1994, he was convinced by his defence officials that the intensity of combat with North Korea would be greater than any the world has witnessed since the last Korean War.