Saudi Arabia Purge or Power Struggle?

How Mohammed bin Salman’s adventurism may have perilous repercussions

There is no denying the fact that anti-corruption purge was long overdue in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as the situation prevailing there merited stringent actions. As the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s announced his “Vision 2030” and his other plans for modernity of the Kingdom, his valiance has been envisaged as an anti-corruption campaign. This is one of the reasons that when the Crown Prince initiated his ‘sack-and-detain’ saga, thereby shockingly terminating a decades-old system of consensus rule, many in the country and around the globe ideated a new era in the country’s history. However, with a thorough analysis of the situation by connecting the dots internally and externally, the picture becomes clearer and divergent perspectives emerge. It appears that what Al Arabiya told was not the whole truth. 

There could be differing versions of what is happening in Saudi Arabia.

First, Prince Mohammed bin Salman (hereinafter Prince Mohammed) is a progressive, motivated and forward-looking young man. He and his father King Salman have a strong conviction that the Crown Prince has been bestowed with the spine and skill to wash the Kingdom’s face and reform the state system in all aspects. To bolster the Kingdom’s economy and rid it of ‘oil addiction’, Prince Mohammed announced to launch project NEOM – a planned 10,230-square-mile transnational city and economic zone to be constructed in the border region of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt. The project represents ‘the next generation city and global centre for innovation, trade and creativity in the Kingdom’.

So, besides opening up the Saudi economy to innovation and entrepreneurship and transforming the so-called ultraconservative society into a liberal, progressive and tolerant one, are also at the top of Prince Mohammed’s priority list. Prince Mohammed, in this regard, conveyed his fervour, more than once, that ‘modern open Islam’ was the idea whose time has really come. He gave the long-demanded permission for women to drive and also announced to establish a marine-oriented resort under international tourism project namely ‘The Red Sea’. The resort will be built across a lagoon of 50 virgin islands between the cities of Umlaj and Al-Wajh. Slated for completion in 2019, the semi-autonomous region would be governed through international standard laws and the place of exceptional fauna and flora would be kept out of the jurisdiction of Kingdom’s strict laws. An thus Prince Mohammed’s vision and optimism may bring the country out of muck and mire it is drowsed in today.

Second, some consider Prince Mohammed as the Kingdom’s lightning rod in the battle between tradition and modernity; he is deemed by majority as a power-hungry and his actions, too, vividly depict so. Within only a few hours after seating an anti-corruption committee constituted by his father King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Prince Mohammed ordered the arrest of many incumbent and former ministers and some of the state’s high-profile business tycoons including the Kingdom’s kingpin prince Al-Waleed bin Talal. Moreover, King Salman throughout his rule has mollycoddled his honeybunch son out of the way, entrusting him the Kingdom’s literally all the affairs, in sheer violation of decades-old family rules and lineage patterns. Some might believe that in order to transform a country like Saudi Arabia, some heads must be chopped-off and that is what Prince Mohammed is actually up to. But, what about the dissidents these acts are going to produce? Isn’t Prince Mohammed sowing the seeds of rebellion?

Then, various happenings, especially the recent mysterious helicopter crash in which eight people, including Prince Mansour bin Muqrin who recently wrote letters to over 1,000 family princes persuading them to not back Prince Mohammed out of lineage succession to the throne, were killed. In addition, the mysterious death of King Fahd’s son Prince Abdulaziz bin Fahd, after some ‘alive and well’ news, and the subsequent request by his nephew Prince Turki bin Mohamed bin Fahd to Sauid Arabia’s archrival Iran for asylum sent shockwaves across the region. Similarly, the arrest of Al-Waleed’s daughter Princess Reem serves as a clear indication of a dissident-cleansing process and indicates that the anti-corruption purge is nothing but a smokescreen.

How a King could be considered truthful in his ‘anti-corruption purge’ claims who himself recently spent $100m on summer holidays in Morocco? His son, Prince Mohammed, who portrays himself as a machismo of implementing financial austerity, has spent a whopping $550m to purchase a personal super-yacht, from the Russian vodka tycoon Yuri Shefler. Why is the so-called purge not applicable to King Salman’s family and how is this family different from the rest of the Al-Saud family in their spending and lifestyles? These inconsistencies raise many questions. So, those who believe that the recent happenings in the Kingdom are a “soft coup” or a “coup from within,” have strong reasons behind their conviction. Even if Prince Mohammed is touted to be a visionary sage, how a state could be more autocratic and authoritarian as well as moderate and progressive at the same time? It’s just an illusion only gullible would believe.

There is also another aspect of the story. Keeping in view the recent steps taken and policies followed, regionally, Prince Mohammed’s rise and his possible coronation as the next Saudi King is considered a good omen for the world’s two imperialist powers: the United States and Israel, as well as for the UAE. Recent email leaks reveal that UAE, with the help the US and KSA, had planned to stage a coup in Qatar mainly to contain its emergence as a regional economic competitor and to sabotage the Football World Cup that is scheduled to be held in the country in 2022. So much so, they even intended to launch Blackwater-like mercenaries to overthrow the Al-Thani regime.

Moreover, Prince Mohammed is considered a regional bully against Iran and Russia – and as he has proved that too. Israel and the US President Donald Trump seem very certain where to invest their trust. Some experts even opine that KSA is now literally ruled by Trump administration. This might be because Prince Mohammed, for quite some time, has been calling the shots on foreign policy issues by taking nostalgic and reckless steps regarding Yemen, Syria, Qatar and the next-in-line Lebanon, coupled with the recent internal ‘aggression’, he has successfully won many patrons internationally and many foes at home and in the region. Furthermore, by opening channels with Israel in sheer betrayal to the oppressed Palestinians, Prince Mohammed has further proved himself to be a ‘good boy’ of world’s hegemonic powers but overall public opinion in Muslim world is going drastically against him.

It is widely believed that Iran’s expansionist designs in the region have been pushing the KSA closer to Israel and US, and this ‘axis of fear’ has resulted in more role and influence of these powers in the policies of the Gulf countries, especially KSA. It might be true to a greater extent, but the fact remains that rationality has no parallel as it won’t let you down and eventually will pay back. This war, portrayed many times as a sectarian and religious one, is actually of dominance and hegemony in this part of the world and it must be abated sooner than later. Both the sides need this realization how their common enemies are benefitting out of the situation.

Tragically, the war between Iran-backed Houthi militias and Saudi Arabia-led Arab collation forces in Yemen has also taken a heavy toll. The Saudi blockade of Yemen tightened in the aftermath of a short-range ballistic missile fired, on November 4, from Yemen and was intercepted near Riyadh’s airport. Saudi government accused Iran of providing the missiles to the Houthis. The blockade, the allied forces claim, was necessary to curtail further supply of weapons to the Houthis from Tehran. But the painful part is that the blockade has actually obstructed the civilian humanitarian aid of the United Nations and it will plunge the country into “a famine killing millions of people, the likes of which the world has not seen for decades,” the UN humanitarian chief Mark Lowcock told Security Council on November 6. With this prevailing situation that is getting worse day by day, why Lebanon is under spotlight now and what fate has been determined for this loosely-united diverse country? Attack on Lebanon will be the blunder the regional powers should necessarily avoid.

In the aftermath of the resignation mystery of the Lebanese premier, Saad Al-Hariri, the KSA ordered all its citizens to leave Lebanon. It seems the Kingdom’s rulers want to avenge their defeat against Iran;’s aggressive campaigns in Syria, Iraq and Yemen through opening up of new front in Lebanon to hammer Iran’s most loyal proxy; Hezbollah, perhaps without counting the cost of the backlash. It will have all prospects for escalation, and direct confrontation between Iran and KSA may also ensue. The happiest in this scenario will be Israel. As long as Muslims are engaged with one another, nothing irritates Israel and no questions would raised against its apartheid against the helpless Palestinians.

In our region, Pakistan will be the first to bear the brunt despite the fact that we already have our hands full with our internal maladies. We have already seen the ‘change’ coming when 405 construction Pakistani workers had to head home in September last year after working without pay for nearly a year in the Gulf region. Besides oil and economic dependence, with our former Army Chief out there, coupled with our ideological, spiritual and emotional attachment with ‘Haramain Sharifain,’ we will be, like always, the first to chant slogans without having a shred of awareness about the ground realities of one of most complex regions of the world; Middle East.

The dangers of the path Prince Mohammed is expeditiously treading appear leading into deep swamp of chaos and turmoil with the potential of engulfing not only the whole region but with spillover effects beyond that. If better sense doesn’t prevail, the resultant danger will surpass all the existing ones in the region.