GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2017

Results

• Deaths caused by terrorism decreased by 13 percent from 2015 to 2016. There were 25,673 deaths in 2016. This is the second consecutive year that the number of deaths from terrorism has decreased. Deaths have now fallen by 22 percent since the peak in 2014.
• Four of the five countries with the highest impact from terrorism recorded a reduction in the number of deaths; Afghanistan, Nigeria, Syria and Pakistan. Together with Iraq, these five countries accounted for three quarters of all deaths from terrorism in 2016.
• Nigeria saw the greatest reduction in deaths with 3,100 fewer people killed by terrorism in 2016 than in 2015. This was due to an 80 percent reduction in the number of people killed by Boko Haram.
• There were also substantial decreases in deaths from terrorism in Yemen, Afghanistan and Syria, which collectively witnessed over 500 fewer deaths in 2016 than in the prior year.
• However, the global GTI score deteriorated by four percent between 2015 and 2016 due to a record number of countries experiencing at least one death from terrorism. A total of 77 countries recorded at least one death. This is an increase from 65 countries in 2015.
• Iraq experienced a 40 percent increase in deaths in 2016, reflecting the increased intensity of ISIL activity following attacks by the Iraqi Armed Forces to reclaim several major urban centres.

Trends

• Since 2002, eight of the nine regions in the world experienced an increase in terrorism. North America was the only region to experience a reduced impact. Over the last 15 years, South Asia experienced the most terrorist activity while Central and South America were least affected. The MENA region (Middle East and North Africa) had the sharpest increase in terrorism.
• Egypt and Turkey witnessed very large increases in terrorism following government crackdowns. In Egypt, terrorism deaths increased nine-fold and in Turkey, this figure has increased by 16 times.
• Globally, attacks against civilians increased by 17 percent from 2015 to 2016. The primary targets of terrorists are private citizens and property.
• Deaths from terrorism have risen in tandem with battle-related deaths. From 2006 to 2016, deaths from terrorism increased 67 percent while battle deaths increased by 66 percent.
• Terrorist attacks are deadlier in conflict-affected countries where there is an average of 2.4 fatalities per attack in 2016 compared to 1.3 fatalities in non-conflict countries.

Terrorism in OECD Countries

• There have been nearly 10,000 deaths from terrorism in OECD countries between 1970 and 2016 with 58 percent of these deaths occurring prior to 2000.
• The OECD accounted for one percent of global deaths from terrorism in 2016. This is an increase from 0.1 percent in 2010.
• The first six months of 2017 recorded fewer deaths than the corresponding period for 2016. The first half of 2017 recorded 82 deaths compared to 265 for the whole of 2016.
• Since 2014, there has been a shift in tactics toward simpler attacks against non-traditional targets. ISIL has also shown that attacks against soft targets using unconventional tactics are more likely to be effective than elaborate schemes.
• Since 2014, ISIL-directed or ISIL-inspired attacks have occurred in 18 of the 33 OECD countries and account for three quarters of all deaths.

Characteristics of Terrorists

• Over the last 17 years, 99 percent of all terrorist deaths occurred in countries that are either in conflict or have high levels of political terror.
• There are multiple paths to radicalisation and individuals can exhibit both high and low levels of education, income, religious or political knowledge.
• Relative deprivation can also be a driver of terrorist recruitment as it leads to the creation of an ‘us vs them’ mentality.
• In the last ten years lone actor terror attacks have increased in OECD countries, from one in 2008 to 56 in 2016. The greatest number of these attacks have occurred in the United States.

Terrorist Groups

• The four deadliest terrorist groups were responsible for 59 percent of all deaths in 2016.
• ISIL was the deadliest group in 2016 with a 50 percent increase in deaths from its previous peak in 2015. The group killed 9,132 people in 2016 with the majority of these deaths occurring in Iraq.
• However, ISIL is now near complete military defeat in Iraq and Syria and has a greatly diminished revenue base and capacity. ISIL’s revenue is estimated to have declined threefold from US$81 million per month in 2015 to US$16 million per month in 2016.
• ISIL undertook directed attacks in 15 countries, which is four more than the previous year. ISIL-affiliated groups killed a further 2,417 people and undertook attacks in 11 other countries, although this is fewer than in 2015.
• The three other most deadly terrorist groups, Boko Haram, al-Qaeda and the Taliban, were each responsible for fewer deaths from terrorism in 2016.
• There are many ways in which terrorist groups end. Since 1970, around a third of groups have ended following the attainment of their political goals, a third due to internal splintering and a third following defeat by the military or police.

Economics of Terrorism

• The global economic impact of terrorism was US$84 billion in 2016. This represents a seven percent decline from the previous year and a 19 percent decline from the peak in 2014.
• This calculation is conservative and does not include costs associated with countering terrorism and countering and preventing violent extremism nor the indirect costs on business from terrorism.
• The four largest terrorist groups have diverse revenue sources including money transfers, donations, trafficking, taxation and extortion.
• The cost of conducting an attack in Europe has decreased significantly with a shift towards simpler attacks. Most attacks in Europe cost less than US$10,000 in total. This means most attacks are self-funded and do not require any external support.

Pakistan & The GTI 2017

For the third consecutive year Pakistan has witnessed fewer terrorist attacks and deaths. In 2016, there were 956 deaths from terrorism; the lowest number in a decade. This is a 12 percent decrease from the previous year and a 59 percent decline from the peak in 2013.

These improvements are notable as Pakistan has a long history of high levels of terrorism and this year’s result is the best in a decade. Since 2007, Pakistan has ranked as at least the fourth worst country for terrorism and on six occasions was ranked second.

The trend of reduced deaths reflects the decline in activity of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP); which has killed the most people in Pakistan. Since 2000, TTP has been responsible for at least 4,500 deaths, which account for over half of all deaths from terrorism by known groups.

The reduction in deaths from terrorism is in part attributable to Operation Zarb-e-Azb by the Pakistani Army; a military effort which started in mid-2014. The operation focused on destroying militant safe havens in the North Waziristan district of the federally administered tribal areas. As a result of this operation, the military estimates that over 3,500 TTP members have been killed. It is also assumed that many more members have fled into Afghanistan, which unfortunately has bolstered the number of Taliban fighters in Afghanistan.

TTP was responsible for 283 deaths in 2016, which accounted for 30 percent of total deaths from terrorism that year. However it should be noted that 30 percent of all deaths are not claimed by any group. Most of these deaths resulted from suicide bombings. The largest bombing targeted Christians celebrating Easter Sunday at Gulishan-e-Iqbal Park in Lahore and killed 79 people. This was the deadliest attack in Pakistan since the 2014 attack on the Army Public School in Peshawar which killed 151 people. Other groups active in Pakistan include the ISIL-affiliated Khorasan Chapter of the Islamic State. This chapter, which also operates in Afghanistan, was responsible for 16 percent of deaths in Pakistan. Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, a Sunni jihadist group, continued to be active in Pakistan in 2016 and accounted for 11 percent of deaths. At least seven different Baloch nationalist groups in the southwest undertook attacks in 2016 which resulted in 61 deaths from 60 separate attacks.

Courtesy: Institute for Economics and Peace