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Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, in his maiden address to the nation on August 19, declared that he had always given high priority to good relations with India for the sake of durable peace in the region and the nation has endorsed this standpoint during the recent elections.
The announcement made and desire expressed by the Prime Minister has come at the time when there is a persistent violation of ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC). Whether these violations are to pre-empt Pakistan’s quest for normalizing bilateral or to give the peace-lovers across borders a loud and clear message that it still is a formidable task, it warrants a threadbare analysis. When the PM claims of public endorsement, he refers to the desire of the mainstream parties to have a peaceful coexistence with India. If that be the case, then where do the bottlenecks or the institutional weaknesses to move forward lie?
Mistrust
The 66-year history of mistrust has ensued hatred and apprehensions. The same has been translated in policy papers and official files. In the atmosphere marred by mistrust, prime minister’s desire will be put under the microscope by the Indians considering it a new tactic rather than a breather. The mistrust is so prevalent that recent flooding in Punjab is being dubbed as Aabi Jarhiet (water-aggression) by India despite a reported statement of Pakistan’s Indus Water Commissioner that India did send prior information of releasing huge quantity of water from its reservoirs. The incumbent Indian Premier Dr Manmohan Singh and his former Pakistani counterpart Yusuf Raza Gilani, in their Thimpu meeting on the sidelines of SAARC Summit, authorized their foreign ministers to seek means and ways for ending trust deficit. But how many times, the two foreign ministers have interacted, let alone the exploring the means?
Preconditions
For a meaningful and result-oriented dialogue, India has always put preconditions. Former Premier A.B. Vajpayee only conditionally agreed to a dialogue in the famous January 6, 2004 statement with President Musharraf; India put conditions for revival of dialogue in the post-Mumbai attacks scenario also.
Hafiz Saeed, LeT, JuD, handlers of Ajmal Kasab, etc have become a mantra for the Indians. When Nawaz Sharif extends a hand of friendship at any forum, the Indian counterpart will definitely be having a ready-made recipe of these off-quoted terms and conditions. What does the Prime Minister has in his kitty to offer to the Indians? Whether May 11 elections has empowered him to even think of taking a decision on Hafiz Saeed or whether his own party cadres will approve such a vision? What appropriate steps he has to take when the Indian side demands translation of his desires into concrete practical steps?
Future Interactions
In the atmosphere of hope and fear, the Prime Ministers of both countries can have at least three meetings in the coming months. Despite the continued violation of ceasefire across the LoC since August 6, hopes for a meeting between the two leaders in New York are still alive. The US media is anticipating a meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session this month. The second opportunity or possibility of another such meeting will be available in Sri Lanka that is hosting the forthcoming Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in mid-November, wherein both Prime Ministers will be participating.
Similarly, Nawaz Sharif may have a third interaction with his Indian counterpart in Kathmandu, Nepal in early 2014 where the next SAARC Summit will take place. How far these opportunities may bring the leadership of both neighbouring nations closer will depend on the respective internal cohesions. India does not face a significant challenge in this regard whereas Pakistan will go through an internal transition in November when the change in military top leadership will be made. So, this challenge of internal cohesion seems more on Pakistan’s side.
Mian Nawaz Sharif can safely afford emphasizing on ‘reprioritization’ of foreign policy as his party has won the elections recently. Dr Manmohan Singh, on the other hand, has no such privilege. His party i.e. Congress, will seek a fresh mandate early next year. An iota of symbolic weakness or a concession to Pakistan can jeopardize Congress’ chances of a re-win against Hindu chauvinist especially in the wake of the rise of Narendra Modi, a notorious adversary to Indian Muslims. So Dr Singh will think hundred times before making any move against Pakistan. In the coming weeks, a slowdown in the official contacts between the two countries can be anticipated.
Pakistan and India have to live together as neighbours whether they like it or not. The perpetual animosity has already wasted 66 years as the two countries could not divert their spending on the general welfare of their peoples. In these years, Pakistan faced dismemberment while India also feels bleeding continuously. Ironically there still prevails uncertainty about a mutual desire of permanent peaceful coexistence. Both countries has to carve out strategies to launch a fight against hunger, poverty, diseases, malnutrition, unemployment, illiteracy and other social ills.
Amidst consistent violations of ceasefire on LoC, Nawaz Sharif has presented an olive branch to India with sincerity; India should also come forward with greater earnestness.
