Pakistan & Kerry’s Milder Manner What Lies Underneath?

The recent visit to Pakistan by US Foreign Secretary John Kerry’s saw the resumption of Pak-US strategic dialogue that was stalled after the Salala Check Post incident, in which 24 Pakistani soldiers were martyred after the bombing by the US fighter jets. Besides, the Raymond Davis issue also ignited public anger in Pakistan and led to heightened diplomatic tensions. The death of Osama Bin Laden in ‘Operation Neptune Spear’ by US marines on May 2, 2011 in Abbottabad further escalated the tensions and widened the trust deficit between both countries.

The target points of Kerry’s visit must be deliberated while investigating its covert and overt grounds. Kerry’s visit was mainly focused on two issues i.e. security and economic development. However, his interactions with Pakistani leadership and the dialogues mostly covered three substantial security issues namely the strategic dialogue process, drone attacks, and security of Afghanistan.

The strategic dialogue between the US and Pakistan formally commenced when former US President George W. Bush visited Pakistan in 2006. The second and the third rounds were held in December 2007 and December 2010 respectively; the fourth round took place in Washington on March 24-25, 2011. It was a ministerial level dialogue co-chaired by the then US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Pakistan’s former Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi. Pakistan’s COAS,
General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, also participated. This round turned Pak-US relationship into partnership as it helped establishing a Steering Group to ‘intensify and expand the sectoral dialogue process in the fields of economy and trade; energy; defence; security; strategic stability and non-proliferation; law enforcement and counterterrorism; science and technology; education; agriculture; water; health; and communications and public diplomacy.’


Unfortunately, the fifth round, scheduled to be held in 2012, was stalled due to Salala Incident. Though Mr Kerry’s recent visit saw the resumption of the dialogue, the conditions attached to it including the eradication of terrorists’ safe havens in Pakistan, may become a major hurdle in the way to remove hostilities.
The cautious statements by John Kerry imply as if the resumption of Pak-US strategic ties is Afghanistan and China based. It means the US wants to engage Pakistan in Afghan peace process by facilitating talks between Taliban and Karzai Government along with paving the way for Nato withdrawal from Afghan territory; until then, the US will stay focused on managing Pakistan’s security and economy as long as Pakistan supports US policies towards Afghanistan. Besides, strategic containment of China is one of the main reasons for America’s tilt towards Pakistan following its ‘Asia Pivot Strategy’. China also carefully observed Kerry’s visit, and it still keeps a close eye on State Department’s milder approach to Pakistan over the controversial issues including terrorism and drone strikes.

China also carefully observed Kerry’s visit, and it still keeps a close eye on State department’s milder approach to Pakistan over the controversial issues including terrorism and drone strikes.

 The US aspires to resume the strategic dialogue in six months under ministerial session but prior to it, working groups will meet to decide the agenda along with border management, counterterrorism and non-proliferation.

During his visit, Mr Kerry presented a legal justification on the drone attacks, thus, rejecting Pakistan’s call for immediate halt in the attacks. However, it must be noted that for the first time, unlike Hillary Clinton’s tough stance over the matter, John Kerry used a mild tone assuring the Government of Pakistan for continued talks over drone strikes assuring an end to these attacks in near future. The state of affairs manifests it was a hasty statement by him as the circumstances are not ripe for US to halt drone strikes immediately.

According to a recent report by the ‘New America Foundation’, a think tank, the drone attacks in Pakistan have decreased substantially. There have been only 16 drone strikes in Pakistan so far this year, compared with a peak of 122 in 2010, 73 in 2011 and 48 in 2012. As John Kerry’s statement negated President Obama’s policies and statements on drone strikes, his stance was immediately downplayed by the US officials. State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki said,

‘Today, the Secretary referenced the changes that we expect to take place in that programme over the course of time, but there is no exact timeline to provide.’

Besides all these factors, the US wants to bring the Taliban and Afghan government on the negotiating table to put an end to fighting and to ensure a safe withdrawal of Nato troops from Afghanistan in 2014. Therefore, the US is concerned about the subtle Pak-Afghan relations and post-withdrawal Afghanistan. Consequently, the focal point of Kerry’s discussion with Pakistan were counterterrorism and cross-border militancy, to promote a secure and stable Afghanistan which could serve the US interests best afterwards.

In the face of the ‘milder-manner diplomacy’, it is a reality that there are still some serious issues between the two states which will remain a main cause of resentment for long; such as Pakistani Taliban, War on terror and the lack of coordination between Military-Civilian Secret Agencies in this term as Pakistan’s recently-leaked Abbottabad Commission report makes clear the negligence on part of Pakistan’s security agencies ‘both military and civil’ which make it a suspicious counter-terror partner. In addition to this, strained Pak-India relations, and Pakistan’s reaction over Indian activities in Afghanistan are also a source of concern for the US. Similarly, it is also debatable to know about the Sharif administration’s new policies and planning to tackle the issue of violence and extremism, terrorist groups, which need new dynamism and vivacity than its predecessor.

In the final analysis, more or less, like previous US officials’ visits to Pakistan, this visit may also present an option to Pakistan to remove tensions with the US and reviving relations becoming its strong ally in ‘post-withdrawal era’.

By: Ishrat Abbasi

 

 

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