DARE TO STARE, AFGHAN DRAWDOWN AND REAL CHALLENGES FOR PAKISTAN

Some analysts opine that ‘first light of 2015 will be the dawn of the Taliban’s victory against another superpower.

The proposed ISAF pullout will unfold events that may influence Pakistan’s internal security, stability and prospects of peace in this volatile region. The new Pakistani government is expected to confront multiple challenges emanating from developments in Afghanistan and unbridled armed outfits threatening the country.

The prime concern for the new government is the terrorist acts of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), especially in Kyhyber Pakhtunkhwa. They are based in the North Waziristan and other parts of FATA. The TTP is said to be aligned with the Afghan Taliban. Allied Forces hold the militants on this side of the Durand Line responsible for attacks on ISAF troops and insurgency in Afghanistan. It is worrisome for Islamabad and a formidable challenge for Pakistani security establishment to eliminate the militants from Pakistani soil to ensure peace between both the neighbours.

 The US took ten years to reckon Taliban as key to peace in Afghanistan. Opening of the Taliban liaison office in Qatar and getting down to talks was a welcome initiative. The gulf between Taliban’s demand for complete withdrawal versus America’s insistence on delinking from al-Qaeda, renouncing violence, recognition of Karzai government as legitimate and acceptance of Afghan constitution at the outset seems unbridgeable. At present, the dialogue process is in doldrums.

Resumption of the talks for a conclusive end is the ultimate need for peace and ISAF’s exit from Afghanistan. The new government is confronted with the challenge to influence both the US and the Taliban to find ground for meeting of the twains.

Dialogue is the only option for settlement of the Afghan imbroglio and US drawdown through Pakistan. Has the US lost interest in negotiations with the Taliban? Has the decision been made at the White House that US is to depart and leave Afghans in lurch? This state of affairs is affrighting due to its negative fallout on security situation in both the countries. Afghanistan will be left at the mercy of Taliban and destabilizing forces in Pakistan will be encouraged by this. Hence, it is imperative for Islamabad to launch a renewed initiative for resumption of talks.

Afghan societal makeup is pluralistic; it has 42% Pushtuns, 27% Tajiks, 9% each of Hazaras and Uzbeks and remaining 13% are Aimaks, Baloch and others. It was in 2003 that the US framed a recruitment policy for ethnic balance in the Afghan National Army. Ahmed Rashid writes in his book ‘Pakistan on the Brink: The Future of Pakistan and the West’ (Allen Lane 2012):

‘Tajiks could not be over 25 per cent in the army, but in 2010, they constituted some 41 per cent of soldiers and officers in the army, while Tajik officers commanded 70 per cent of the units’.

The Taliban are Pushtun; they have representation in the ANA. Reports suggest that the Tajik officer corps suspects their loyalty. Intra-Afghan war, in a dreadful scenario, will trigger Pushtun soldiers’ en masse defections that may lead to disintegration of the ANA.  Trained force will be available to the Taliban in their push towards the North. Undoubtedly, the sympathizers on this side of Durand Line will participate in any combat to aid Taliban. Will Pakistan’s security forces intervene to restrain such move? If yes, destabilizing elements will get in to action posing threat to its integrity. It will be an unpleasant situation that Pakistan will endeavour, in any case, to avoid.

 Drone strikes, in the country’s tribal belt, is a contentious issue. The US adamantly continues showering drones disregarding the parliamentary resolutions, and mass protests in Pakistan and in the whole world. The reports suggest that the drone attacks killed innocent citizens mostly. Result is radicalization of the tribal youth and growth of ‘talibanization’. The US must realize that drone strikes have tarnished her image. In spite of huge investments in many projects and wide’ scale publicity thereof, the US is still unfriendly country to 87% Pakistanis.

Mian Nawaz Sharif is now calling the shots in Pakistan. He inherited a complex situation vis-à-vis recently announced policy on Authorized Use of Military Force by the White House.

The new government needs all the wisdom and diplomatic acumen to convince the US that drone strikes are counterproductive and a violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty and also a blatant violation of international law. A high pitched voice against AUMF must be raised at national and international forums. Anti-drone lobby in the US must be supported to muster support of the human rights organizations and that of media against incessant drone strikes. At the same time, the government is to assure its commitment to flush out militant outfits operating against the interests of the US, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The new government is in a fix regarding internal security concerns and in defining its relationship with the US. Pakistan needs to control anarchic trends, restoration of the state-writ and prevent FATA from becoming breeding ground for terrorists. The US must be convinced to stop drone attacks. It will afford time and space to Nawaz government to evolve strategy for restoration of normalcy in the region and safe exit of the US and allies in 2014.