Pak-India Relations: Challenges and Opportunities

There are the challenges of the deeper structural and environmental type that both India and Pakistan face, but which can only be dealt effectively if they work together.

The ambassador of Hindu-Muslim unity Quaid-i-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah finally reached to the conclusion that Muslims cannot prosper in United India so he got a separate homeland (Pakistan) for Muslims. India’s behaviour, after partition was very cold and unjustified. India refused to turn over Pakistan’s share of the military and financial assets inherited from British India, exacerbated the distrust and ill will. Indian actions in Kashmir to block access to the waters of the Indus in early 1948 forcing Pakistan to sign an agreement heightened such fears that India did not accept its neighbour’s existence and intended through bullying tactics to drive it to collapse quickly.

The core issue is Kashmir which controls the waters of the rivers that Pakistan needs to irrigate the field of Punjab and Sindh as well as for energy. The fact is that the loss of Muslim majority Kashmir undercuts the rationale for a separate Muslim state in South Asia and, thus, Pakistani identity.

Pakistan missed the historical opportunity to get Kashmir during Indo-China war in 1962. General Ayub Khan came under US pressure and Pakistan remained neutral. The US promised to help Pakistan and use its influence over India to give people of Kashmir their right of self-determination. The US changed his mind after the war between India and China and Ayub Khan termed US a ‘cheat’. The Pakistan army prepared a secret plan to enter its forces into Indian-held Kashmir. India reacted and declared war against Pakistan. Indian army attacked Lahore from three sides. But by the grace of Allah, Pakistan army repulsed this attack. Pakistan and India secured agreement through Tashkent Declaration. The US betrayed its old ally Pakistan and stopped the defence supplies during 1965 war. Field Marshal General Ayub Khan wrote his famous book ‘Friends Not Masters’.

The 1971 war between Pakistan and India deteriorated Pak-India relations. Indian army, with the help of Russia, entered into Dhaka, which was a naked aggression. Pakistan army was forced to surrender. President Bhutto won back the West Pakistan territory and release of 90,000 POWs through Shimla Agreement.

Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif and Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee decided to change the tone of relationship and instigate rapprochement due to different domestic reasons. Vajpayee travelled on the first bus to visit Lahore in February 1999. This led to a summit meeting which, for a few months was considered a breakthrough and turning point in the historic hostility between the two countries. This era of good feeling lasted only about three months. In May 1999, Pakistani troops were discovered to have occupied, since November of the previous years it turned out, the remote heights of a part of Indian-held Kashmir above Kargil. The Pakistan army initiated this adventure, on the behest of General Pervez Musharraf to force India to negotiating table and solve Kashmir issue from a position of weakness. Kargil adventure deteriorated Pak-India relations. The Pakistani and Indian prime ministers were stunned to know about Kargil episode.

The Agra Summit in 2001 between Musharraf and Vajpayee broke the ice that had frozen relations for two years after Kargil. This summit did not produce any result. Musharraf indicated a solution of Kashmir which was contrary to traditional Pakistani stand on this issue.

In November 2008, coordinated terrorist attacks were committed in Mumbai. In these attacks, 173 people were killed including 35 foreigners and 35 were wounded. India blamed Lashkar-e-Taiba and ISI for those attacks. One of the terrorists Ajmal Kasab was arrested alive who admitted that he is Pakistani. This tragic incident injured severally Pak-India relations.

India is dreaming for the status of big world power. It must understand that it cannot be fulfilled until or unless the Kshmir Issue is resolved according to the aspirations of the people of both countries. The new chapter has already commenced with Pakistan announcing MFN status for India and the latter reciprocating by withdrawing its objections within the WTO to Pakistan getting preferential access to the EU market and also supporting its bid for a UNSC seat. The public opinion is divided about offering MFN status to India. India is rapidly constructing several dams on Indus river which may convert Pakistan lands into desert. Water issue is also major irritant between India and Pakistan.

There are the challenges of the deeper structural and environmental type that both India and Pakistan face, but which can only be dealt effectively if they work together. The increasing gap between poor and rich, environmental degradation, sinking water levels, unbridled population growth ‘all pose immediate and long-term challenges that cannot be ignored and need attention right now.

However, 2012 is also a year of opportunities for both nations. Pakistan can miss a golden opportunity if we do not jump onto the bandwagon of economic growth that originated in East Asia, then moved towards Southeast Asia and then continued westwards to India. Bangladesh very wisely decided to hitch its future to it and is reaping impressive benefits. Pakistan becomes the automatic candidate to be on the fast-moving bandwagon of economic growth and development. A vast market exists that extends from Afghanistan into Central Asia for Indian and Pakistani goods.

If India and Pakistan can establish a trade regime that ensures mutual benefit, the dividends can be enormous. Bangladesh and India have recently agreed to establish joint industrial ventures, most notably in the jute industry. Similar enterprises can be established between India and Pakistan, which ensure a fair share to Pakistan.

And, above all, after a very long time if not for the first time, the power elites on both sides are talking peace and taking necessary measures to evolve friendly visa and trade regimes. When nations seize the historical moment they reap great benefits. Fear,  hatred, terrorism, war ‘all have been tried and the results are there to see and feel.

By: Qayyum Nizami