NATO Supply Reopening: It is the Economy, Stupid!

“It is the economy, stupid” is a slight variation of the phrase which James Carville had coined as a campaign strategist of Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 presidential campaign against sitting president George Bush. The same strategy has been followed by Finance Minister Hafeez Sheikh and Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar for convincing the stake-holders in Pakistan for reopening of the NATO supply routes through Pakistan. It has consistently been the argument of the government functionaries that given the bad economic outlook, Pakistan cannot afford annoying around 50 powerful countries including the United States. With the Defence Committee of the Cabinet announcing formal reopening of NATO supplies on July 3, 2012, Pakistan and the United States has also successfully negotiated a memorandum of understanding (MoU). (The MoU may be signed before printing of this article). The seven-month talks between Pakistan and the United States have culminated into the signing of the MoU seven-odd month talk’s process between Pakistan and the United States.

Neither was the Salala incident a beginning of nor is the MoU an end of differences between Pakistan and the United States. It is significant to know the context of lower ebbs in the bilateral relations between Pakistan and the United States. Pakistan and the United States have been having different approaches to handle the Afghan crisis. Pakistan has always promoted the ideas of reconciliation and political strategies for settling the issues in Afghanistan. However, since from beginning of war on terror, the United States and the ISAF (International Assistance Security Forces) have different approaches. From 2001 till 2010, they focused on military solution of Afghanistan. It was only at the London Conference on Afghanistan in January 2010 that the world community thought of a political process which could move parallel to military efforts. President Obama also promised `change’ and his administration later even talked of reconciliation but could not implement it in actions on the ground in Afghanistan. The detection and killing of Osama bin Laden on May 2, 2011 in Abbottabad also became a bone of contention between the two countries. High-level Pakistani officials publicly claim that the initial clues about the OBL compound were transmitted by Pakistan. The so-called Haqqani network operating from inside in Pakistan is another source of contention. However, it is also a matter of common knowledge that the intelligence agencies of all major powers including the CIA have always kept contacts with Haqqani network. The drones attacks inside Pakistan too makes one of the major contentious issues. Pakistan considers drones attacks inside its territory as counter-productive, illegal and unacceptable. But it still faces the same frequency of attacks by the unmanned vehicles called drones.

It was in the said background that the Salala incident finally ran Pakistan out of patience and the latter disconnected itself from the Americans. The anti-Americanism in Pakistan’s media and particularly the organisations like Defence of Pakistan Council kept alive the impressions that Pakistan can live without the United States. The proponents of this school of thought were unanimous in the rhetoric that the United States will be knee down if the NATO supply remains closed just for one month. These elements always forget the limitations in which our own state is surviving. The anti-American sentiments in Pakistan notwithstanding, Pakistan has to be a part of the solution in Afghanistan. At this crucial juncture of the history of the region, Pakistan cannot live alone when 2014 is rapidly approaching when ISAF forces will be leaving Afghanistan. And it is not only the United States that has its stakes in Afghanistan. NATO means Turkey, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Netherlands, and so on including most of the 27 countries currently comprising NATO. On some of the countries, we are depend for our exports; on others, we depend for security items purchase; and still on some other countries; we depend for moral and political support on our own disputes in the region. Our largest export destination is the European Union where we send more than 10 billion euros of items. We import most of the security equipments from the United States including F-16s etc. And we always seek support of friends like Turkey on issues like Kashmir, etc. Under these considerations, the leadership of Pakistan was conscious and kept on engaged in the talks. Under the atmosphere on fear and favour, the talks continued both in Islamabad and Washington DC. Finally a phone call from the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to the Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar with the expression of `sorry` of Salala incident prompted Pakistan to reopen NATO supply. ‘I once again reiterated our deepest regrets for the tragic incident in Salala last November. I offered our sincere condolences to the families of the Pakistani soldiers who lost their lives. Foreign Minister Khar and I acknowledged the mistakes that resulted in the loss of Pakistani military lives. We are sorry for the losses suffered by the Pakistani military. We are committed to working closely with Pakistan and Afghanistan to prevent this from ever happening again’ Hillary Clinton said while talking to HIna Rabbani Khar on telephone. The present government of Pakistan also feels that the resumption of supplies is very important for facilitating the exit from Afghanistan.

The atmosphere of talks under fear and favour contained one essential element for Pakistan; and that is the economy of Pakistan. The United States did not reimburse Coalition Support Fund deliberately. The international financial institutions, particularly the IMF were not responsive to Pakistan under the pressure of the United States. The situation of balance of payment in Pakistan has lately not been very healthy. With the resumption of NATO supply, the United States has shown willingness to release $1.1 billion under the Coalition Support Fund to Pakistan. The high-level delegation from IMF is also due to visit Pakistan soon to help stabilize Pakistan’s economy. Anyhow, it is all economy, stupid.