Trilateral Summit 2012

The recently held Trilateral Summit concluded with the adoption of a communique in Islamabad. Signed by the Presidents of Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan in the glare of the world media, the contents of the communique made all the right vibes and touched upon the most critical issues facing the region. This was the third Trilateral Summit held in Islamabad. The earlier ones were held in May 2009 and June 2011 in Tehran respectively. It was also decided that the fourth Trilateral Summit will be held in Kabul whose exact dates would be agreed to and communicated accordingly through diplomatic channels.

Before dilating upon the contents of the joint communique, it is important to take stock of the context in which this summit took place. It was not merely another summit or a multilateral engagement amongst the regional countries. Rather coming as it did in the wake of estranged relations between the US on the one hand and Pakistan, Iran and the Karzai government on the other, this Summit assumed greater symbolism and meaning both for regional peace as well as for the US exit plan to pull out its forces by 2014.

First of all, the relations between Washington and Tehran continue to go from bad to worse by the day. Following the sanctions imposed by both the UN and the US over the country’s nuclear program, Iran has been facing international isolation. By attending the Trilateral Summit, the Iranian President gave a loud message to the US that Iran still had a few options to fall back upon and can up the ante for the US by strengthening its relations with Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Pakistan expressed its commitment to pursue Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline despite the US pressure. In response, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad vowed to take the bilateral trade to $10 billion in a few months.

Secondly, Washington’s relations with Islamabad have been all-time low following the OBL affair in May last year and the NATO’s attack on the army check post in Mohmand Agency in November 2011. Pakistan refused to attend the critical Bonn Conference on Afghanistan and blocked the NATO supply in protest to the violations of its territory. It also declared to reformulate new terms of engagement with the US. A Parliamentary on the National Security has been seized of the matter and its recommendations would be put before the Parliament for debate as well as for final approval. Through this Trilateral Summit, Pakistan has let it be known in crystal clear terms that its foreign policy possessed the dynamism of looking beyond the US and that the country could move on without the US backing by exploring its sources of support and friendships in the region as well as beyond.

Thirdly, Afghan President, Hamid Karzai, of late, has been having strained relations with the US over the latter’s direct communication with the Taliban in Qatar. The administration of Hamid Karzai believes that the US should have taken Kabul on board at least before entering into any kind of talks with the Taliban, if it did not want to engage Kabul as an equal interlocutor in these all-important talks. The leaks by the top US officials such as Defence Secretary Leon Panetta about advancing the exit date by a year or so have also rung alarm bells in the Karzai government. It has exposed Kabul to an array of security challenges that it would have to grapple with in the aftermath of the US pullout. Thus by attending a Trilateral Summit and rubbing shoulders with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, President Karzai also tried to look defiant to the US.

While the communique titled as ‘Enhancing Trilateral Cooperation’ dealt with all areas of import, three points deserve special mention here.

First, the heads of three countries identified the economic cooperation as a key to boosting their multilateral relations with one another. They also vowed to enhance three-way trade facilitation measures, including preferential tariff and free trade arrangements as well as barter system. They expressed commitment to expand trade in transit and encourage the private sector to invest in the three countries. Pakistan expressed its commitment to pursue Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline despite the US pressure. In response, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad vowed to take the bilateral trade to $10 billion in a few months.

Second, the three countries made a pledge to proceed on the basis of mutual interest, mutual respect, non-interference and non-intervention in internal affairs of each other. They also vowed not to allow anyone to use the soil of these countries to launch terrorist acts against other countries. They also made a resolve to strengthen cooperation for eradication of terrorism, extremism and militancy besides addressing the root causes of these menaces. This area represents an important development as the three countries made an attempt to resolve the vexed problem which threatened to affect their bilateral relations. If the three countries ensure that their respective soils will not be used by any non-state actor, it can go long way in boosting confidence and further strengthening relations. Added to this is the resolve of both Pakistan and Afghanistan to contribute to development and reconstruction in Afghanistan.

Third important aspect of the joint communique relates to agreement of the three countries on ensuring respect for sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity as enshrined in the UN Charter. They also emphasized the need for enhancing their cooperation at international level, especially within the United Nations system. This, in other words, means that the three countries were untied against any unilateral attack from outside and vowed to vehemently oppose it. If decoded, it meant that Pakistan would not support any US aggression against Iran and abhorred the idea of drone strikes which breached territorial integrity of the country.

This Trilateral Summit has been held at an important juncture and underscores the need for greater engagement among the countries of the region to ward off dangers from outside. Whether it can be a precursor to a strong economic grouping is too early to answer. Only time can tell.