PPP’s Foreign Policy: Promises vs Performance

The foreign policy of the present government does have internal political implications. The pro-establishment right wings in Pakistan, both in media and the political parties, have taken upon them to challenge every initiative the PPP government has taken so far. They have agitated PPP’s inherited alliance in war on terror and vehemently opposed its pursuits and gestures towards India.

Prime Minister of Pakistan Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani, in his speech on December 14 in the Senate of Pakistan, eulogized that he had become the longest serving prime minister in  Pakistan . It is important to analyze the foreign policy pursued during the tenure of longest serving prime minister and his party. ‘The Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians (PPP-P) opposes terrorism and will continue the policy of the present regime (General Musharraf) to ally itself against the forces of terror’ says manifesto of the PPP-P released on the eve of 2008 elections in  Pakistan. Therefore, the foreign policy pursuits with the  United States  in particular and the west in general, warrant special attention. Similarly, the present government has also taken initiatives to normalize with  India . The process still continues despite four years and progress has to be seen.

Relations with the  United States
The PPP leadership owed a special relationship with the  USA because of a role played by the  United States  in ensuring reconciliation between the then President Gen Pervez Musharraf and its slain leader Benazir Bhutto through NRO. And that has been the path so far, adopted by the Co-Chairman of the party and President Asif Ali Zardari. President Zardari has not only remained a stern advocate but also tried to comb together all powers in the form of Friends of Democratic Pakistan (FODP) in line with party’s manifesto of ‘allying itself against the forces of terror’. The Pak-US relations during the current tenure of the PPP, has seen ups and downs. The announcement of massive assistance to  Pakistan-KLB-to the tune of $ 7.5 billion over a span of five years can be termed as a highest whereas the NATO attack on  Pakistan ‘s check post can be seen as a lowest point in their bilateral relations.

It has been during the PPP government that the Strategic Dialogue between the two countries has been upgraded to ministerial level incorporating 13 areas for cooperation including the much-desired energy cooperation in  Pakistan . While the United States has cooperated in enhancing capacity of Tarbela Dam Power project; Muzafargarh, Guddu and Jinnah Thermal Power Project, it however did not come up to the expectations in civil nuclear relations like they did with India. The PPP government could not persuade the United States that the ‘history, the background’ of nuclear cooperation between the United States and India as enunciated by George Bush during his visit to Pakistan, was not different with Pakistan.

The  United States  endeavoured to win hearts and minds of  Pakistanis  by legislating a huge assistance programme introduced in Kerry-Lugar-Berman bill. It promised to provide $1.5 billion every year over a five-year span which was extendable to another similar programme. The massive assistance was purely for social sector development in  Pakistan . However, given the peculiar civil-military relationship in  Pakistan , the PPP could not sell the package. Hue and cry in  Pakistan  created irritants rather than goodwill about the  United States  among the people of  Pakistan.

The ups and downs in Pak-US relations during the first three years of the PPP government, the relationship hit bumpy road in the year 2011. Starting from Raymond Davis saga in  Lahore  early this year to OBL killing in the mid year to Nato attack by the end of the year, the two countries now seem poles apart from each other. And from Parliament to All Parties Conference in the PM House to Envoy Conference, every forum has recommended re-negotiating relations with the  United States .  Pakistan  is now vying for renegotiation of ‘Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement between  Pakistan  and the  United States  (US-Pak-01).

The future look of the Pak-US relations does not seem very encouraging to the level of friendly allies. They are still allies (as  Pakistan  has not still opted out of war against terror) but harnesses grave mistrust between them. The  United States  considers  Pakistan ‘s support to those who attack its soldiers across the border. And the  United States  has recently tied its military assistance to action against the same elements.  Pakistan , too, has its own grievances. There is a general fear among policy makers in  Pakistan  about 2012, being election year in the  United States . The Obama administration in its re-election bid, would definitely put onus on  Pakistan .

The disclosures by WikiLeaks also provided another dimension to the relationship; a divide within  Pakistan  between civil and military relations vis-a-vis Pak-US relations. Memogate is a manifestation on this account.

Relations with  India
The PPPP manifesto reads’ The PPP Parliamentarians, without prejudice to the UN Security Council Resolutions, supports open and safe borders at the Line of Control to socially unite the Kashmiri people. It notes that  India  and  China  have a border dispute and yet enjoy tension free relations. It seeks to reduce tensions with  India  through peaceful negotiations to outstanding Disputes and issues’. This is the foreign policy issue wherein the PPP has tried to keep its promise but with hardships. The PPP tried to carry forward the thread of composite dialogue process with  India  where it inherited from Musharraf regime. However, the Mumbai attacks not only halted the process but also put every thing on the hold with war clouds. However, the PPP successfully vindicated  Pakistan ‘s stance and  India  had to come back on the negotiating table. The confidence building measures(CBMs) across the LoC are now further strengthened with additional CBMs signed between the two countries in July 2011.

Trade with  India  and  South Asia
The PPP manifesto provides an overt support to regional trade. ‘It believes that such a zone can enhance markets and job opportunities as well as enable the South Asian countries to formulate consensus views for World Trade Organization and other international bodies that are coming into being to ensure that they are supportive of the rights of the people of South Asia’ reads the manifesto. The PPP government has reduced the negative list of tradable items under South Asia Free Trade Area (SAFTA) from more than 1100 and brought it down to over 900. The PPP government has further pledged to further reduce 20 % items from the negative list. However, it faces the real challenge in normalization of trade with  India  by according the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status. The roadmap provides full normalization by December 2012. It is a thorny road and time will tell whether the PPP can succeed in this pursuit.

Neighbours-First
The PPP promised good neigbourly relations in the region. The manifesto reads ‘PPP Parliamentarians will continue to cement and enhance relations with  Pakistan ‘s traditional friends.The PPP Parliamentarians seeks good neighbourly relations with its neighbours’. The present government has also tried to keep up with this promise. President Zardari announced to undertake tour to  China  after every three months. He has been to  China  for seven times whereas the Prime Minister visited  China  for four times. The relationship with  China  has seen an upward trend and would continue to be the same in future as well.

The Afghan problem remains a problem till date. President Hamid Karzai was the only head of state who was invited to attend the oath-taking ceremony of President Zardari. The PPP government also signed a new Afghan Transit Trade Agreement with  Afghanistan , providing land route for Afghan goods to  India . However,  Afghanistan ‘s tilt towards  India  or the  United States  creates problems for the government.

The PPP held its legs tight and did not bow to the pressures and signed gas pipeline treaty with  Iran . President Zardari has been proactive in consolidating relations with neighbourly country. The PPP government has also started negotiations with Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) for strategic dialogue and is pursuing its desire.

Conclusion
As discussed earlier, the foreign policy pursuits of the PPP government continue to face challenges. The challenge to the PPP is two-dimensional: both external and internal. The foreign policy of the present government does have internal political implications. The pro-establishment right wings in  Pakistan , both in media and the political parties, have taken upon them to challenge every initiative the PPP government has taken so far. They have agitated PPP’s inherited alliance in war on terror and vehemently opposed its pursuits and gestures towards  India . Similarly, the PPP policies towards  China  and  Iran  have not been accepted by the  United States  and its allies. However, the PPP made promises to the people of  Pakistan  and it must fulfil the same despite multi-dimensional bottlenecks.