Missing plane MH370: 10 theories examined

After the plane went missing ‘with 239 people on board’ a multitude of theories about the plane’s fate were in the air. Malaysia’s Department of Civil Aviation stated that’pings’ were picked up from the plane six hours after military radar last detected it over the Strait of Malacca at 02:15 on 8 March.

1. Landed in the Andaman Islands.

The plane was, at one stage, heading towards India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the most easterly part of Indian Territory which lies between Indonesia and the coast of Thailand and Burma. This notion is outrightly dismissed because strict monitoring by the Indian military wouldn’t let any airliner go unnoticed. Moreover, there are more than 570 islands, only 36 of which are inhabited. If we assume that the plane would have landed on an island there, it would be theoretically possible but extremely difficult. With such a heavy aeroplane, using the landing gear might lead to the wheels digging into the sand and sections of undercarriage being ripped off.

The Central Asian republic is at the far end of the northern search corridor, so the plane could hypothetically have landed there. But, for landing there, the plane would have to cross the airspace of countries like India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, which are all usually in a high state of military preparedness. So, it doesn’t seem possible

The final satellite ‘ping’ suggests the plane was still operational for at least five or six hours after leaving Malaysian radar range. The search should, therefore, start from the extremes of the corridors and work up, rather than the other way around. The southern arc leads to the huge open spaces of the Indian Ocean, and then to Australia’s empty northern hinterland. Without knowing the motive, it is hard to speculate where the plane’s final destination was intended to be. But the plane may just have carried on until it ran out of fuel and then glided and crashed into the sea somewhere north of Australia.

There has been speculation that the plane could have been commandeered by China’s Uighur Muslim separatists. Out of the plane’s 239 passengers, 153 were Chinese citizens. One possible destination in this theory would be China’s Taklamakan Desert. ”

But again, this theory rests on an extraordinary run through the radar systems of several countries.

5. It was flown towards Langkawi Island

The loss of transponders and communications could be explained by a fire. The left turn that the plane made, deviating from the route to Beijing, could have been a bid to reach safety. The pilot aimed to avoid crashing into a city or high ridges.

But this theory also has been disputed. If the course was changed during a major emergency, one might expect it to be done using manual control. But the left turn was the result of someone in the cockpit typing ‘seven or eight keystrokes into a computer on a knee-high pedestal between the captain and the first officer, according to officials’, the New York Times reported.

6. The plane is in Pakistan

Media tycoon Rupert Murdoch tweeted ‘World seems transfixed by 777 disappearance. Maybe no crash but stolen, effectively hidden, perhaps in northern Pakistan, like Bin Laden.’ But Pakistan strenuously denied that this would be possible saying that country’s civil aviation radars never spotted this jet, so how it could be hidden somewhere in Pakistan?’ Like the Kazakhstan theory, this all seems far-fetched.

7. The plane hid in the shadow of another airliner

Keith Ledgerwood believes the missing plane hid in the radar shadow of Singapore Airlines flight 68. The Singaporean airliner was in the same vicinity as the Malaysian plane. He believes that the Singaporean airliner would have disguised the missing plane from radar controllers on the ground.

But there is a difference between military and civilian radar. Civilian radar works by means of a transponder carried by the aircraft – a system known as secondary radar. The military use primary radar and this ‘ought to be higher resolution’.

8. There was a struggle

One of the hardest things to account for with an innocent explanation is the way the plane was flown erratically. It went far above its ‘ceiling’, flying at 45,000ft (13,716m) before later flying very low. Big fluctuations in altitude suggest there might have been a struggle. Post-9/11, cockpit doors have been strengthened against the possibility of hijack but there are still scenarios where access could be gained. But, this also doesn’t seem likely.

9. The passengers were deliberately killed

Another theory is that the plane was taken up to 45,000ft to kill the passengers quickly. The supposed motive for this might have been primarily to stop the passengers using mobile phones, once the plane descended to a much lower altitude. At 45,000ft, the Boeing 777 is way above its normal operating height. And it is possible to depressurise the cabin. Oxygen masks would automatically deploy. They would run out after 12-15 minutes. The passengers – as with carbon monoxide poisoning – would slip into unconsciousness and die, he argues. But whoever was in control of the plane would also perish in this scenario, unless they had access to some other form of oxygen supply.

10. The plane will take off again to be used in a terrorist attack

One of the more outlandish theories is that the plane has been stolen by terrorists to commit a 9/11 style atrocity. It has been landed safely, hidden or camouflaged, will be refuelled and fitted with a new transponder before taking off to attack a city. But, in reality, it would be very hard to land a plane, hide it and then take off again. While it is just about feasible the plane could be landed in secret, it is unlikely it would be in a fit state to take off again.