Mending Pakistan-Russia Relations

The fact, however, that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrived in Islamabad, apparently on a damage-control mission, soon after the cancellation of President Putin’s visit showed Russia’s continued interest in improving relations with Pakistan. The Russian foreign minister explained in a joint press conference with Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar in Islamabad that President Putin was unable to visit Islamabd merely due to scheduling problems. It was also disclosed during the visit that the two countries were working for a meeting between the two presidents in Islamabad or Moscow.

Pakistan and the Soviet Union remained estranged during most of the period of the cold war because of the decision by our political and military leadership to side with the western bloc led by the US. Moscow’s support to India during the East Pakistan crisis and the later Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and the Afghan jihad added to the strains in the bilateral relations. There were occasions during this long period when attempts were made by the two countries to improve this relationship but the underlying divide because of the cold war proved to be too wide to be bridged by those feeble efforts.

The first opening for the improvement of the Pakistan-Russia relations was provided by the Soviet role in the finalisation of the Tashkent Declaration between Pakistan and India in 1966. It came to an end with the start of the East Pakistan crisis and the signing of the Indo-Soviet Friendship Treaty in 1971. The second opening developed because of the strategic initiative by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto to improve relations with Moscow in the aftermath of the painful events of 1971. Pakistan Steel Mills were set up in Karachi with the Soviet help during this period. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan brought an end to this brief period of detente between Islamabad and Moscow.

The end of the cold war has provided another strategic opening to Pakistan and Russia to initiate once again the process of improvement of bilateral relations on a sustainable basis. The evolving international and regional security environment calls for such an improvement which in any case would be mutually beneficial to the two countries. Pakistan, although still allied with the US, is no longer under the constraints of the cold war. The climate of relationship between Washington and Moscow is much more relaxed than it was during the cold war. Further, the US, which is engaged in a process of building up its strategic partnership with India, is hardly in a position to object to Pakistan’s efforts to improve its relations with Russia. Thus, Pakistan’s strategic manoeuvrability is far greater than what it was during the cold war. In view of the strains in Pakistan-US relations because of the situation in Afghanistan, it also makes sense for Islamabad to diversify its external relations to lessen its dependence on the US.

Russia, which has felt the weight of the US military and economic superiority since the end of the cold war and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, has been looking for allies and partners to restore strategic balance. This is particularly true under the leadership of President Putin who has resisted firmly the expansion of the US and NATO influence in Russia’s near-abroad, that is, in central Asian republics and eastern Europe. Russia’s growing partnership with China meets its need for strategic balance at the international and regional levels. One of the main purposes of the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, of which China and Russia are founding members, was to check the expansion of the US influence on the Asian continent. Moscow’s friendship with Islamabad could also serve that purpose in central Asian republics, West Asia and South Asia.

Besides the strategic reasons given above, friendly relations and cooperation between Pakistan and Russia would be mutually beneficial. Russia has a lot to offer in terms of economic cooperation in such sectors as oil and gas, steel and engineering goods, and the building of physical infrastructure in Pakistan covering pipelines, dams, generation and transmission of electricity, and railways. Pakistan-Russia cooperation would be also beneficial for the restoration of durable peace and stability in Afghanistan and in checking extremist movements in the region. The deepening of friendship between the two countries would also help in promoting regional cooperation through lowering of trade barriers and facilitating regional economic connectivity. Growth in Pakistan-Russia trade would enable them to benefit from each other’s comparative advantage in different sectors through lowering of prices of imported items. During my visit to Moscow last year, I was struck by the apparently sincere desire of the Russian academics to strengthen Pakistan-Russia relations.

  Because of the long period of estrangement between Pakistan and Russia in the past, it will take some time to build up mutual trust and engage in mutually beneficial cooperation in economic, commercial, technical and security fields. As pointed out by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin in New Delhi on October 14, 2012 Russia is unlikely to sell arms to Pakistan in the near future. Further, Russia continues to maintain very close friendly relations with India in economic, commercial and strategic fields. Indo-Russian friendship will also act as a constraint on the growth of Pakistan-Russia relations. In view of the past history of difficult relations between Pakistan and Russia, there will be occasional hiccups along the way as the two countries try to provide greater substance and depth to their friendly relations.

The cancellation of President Putin’s visit to Pakistan and the rescheduling of the Quadrilateral Summit of Pakistan, Russia, Tajikstan and Afghanistan planned for 2-3 October, 2012, for whatever reason, was obviously one of those hiccups. The fact, however, that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrived in Islamabad, apparently on a damage-control mission, soon after the cancellation of President Putin’s visit showed Russia’s continued interest in improving relations with Pakistan. The Russian foreign minister explained in a joint press conference with Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar in Islamabad that President Putin was unable to visit Islamabd merely due to scheduling problems. It was also disclosed during the visit that the two countries were working for a meeting between the two presidents in Islamabad or Moscow.

Meanwhile, Russian president’s point-man for  Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov, while explaining Putin’s decision not to visit Pakistan for the time being, had commented, ‘Russian-Pakistani relations have been on the rise in recent years but progress has been mostly at political and emotional levels while economic ties have lagged behind.’ According to some reports Russia had been discouraged by Pakistan’s unenthusiastic response to Russia’s interest in Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project and some other economic initiatives. Be that as it may, Pakistan and Russia signed three MOUs in Islamabad on October 1, 2012 on the expansion of Pakistan Steel Mills and cooperation in railways and water and power sector projects. Another important development was the visit of General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, COAS, to Moscow at the beginning of October 2012 to confer with the Russian army top brass on ways to develop defence ties between the two countries.

The latest developments reinforce the conclusion arrived at earlier that the process of the improvement of Pakistan-Russia relations will be a slow one even though this process serves the best interests of the two countries. We should, therefore, take the cancellation of  President Putin’s visit to Pakistan to attend the Quadrilateral Summit in a stride and keep on working to impart substance and depth to the bilateral relationship. While so doing, we should take full advantage of the attractive opportunities for economic cooperation that Russia offers. Similarly we should maintain close interaction with Moscow on the endgame in Afghanistan and other issues of peace and security in the region.