CHANGING WINDS

Literacy level of all others ethnicities is also much higher than that of Pashtuns. Tajiks and Hazaras are known to support Iran. Coming Afghan leadership has a clear tilt towards India. India is already operating 13 consulates along Pak-Afghan Border.

Wake up. Pull up your socks. Tighten the ropes. Secure your footholds. Join hands. It’s time to unite rather than fighting over petty issues. It is time to put the house in order.

Change in the region is in the offing. Afghanistan is going to change. India is in change frenzy too. Iran has proved its diplomatic prowess by securing their atomic programme. Gulf States, including Saudi Arabia, are stalling in their overall relations. Syria has proved to be a resolute obstacle in the roadmap of Saudi thought and American stance. Russia has dictated terms and conditions by taking over Crimea and provoking protests through their proxies in Ukraine.

Situation in Afghanistan is bodes for coming policy changes. Americans are leaving; at least symbolically. Presidential elections are already over. Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras are in forefront; against 45% Pashtuns, there are 25% Tajiks, 20% Uzbeks, 7% Hazaras and 3% Turkmen and others. In the past 12 years, Pashtuns have been pushed to the wall. Almost all key jobs are now occupied by non-Pashtuns. Literacy level of all others ethnicities is also much higher than that of Pashtuns.

Tajiks and Hazaras are known to support Iran. Coming Afghan leadership has a clear tilt towards India. India is already operating 13 consulates along Pak-Afghan border. A serving Major General of Indian Army is stationed at Helmond. Indian army regular units are operating in Afghanistan in the guise of road construction and training of Afghan forces.

American exit coupled with presidential change in Afghanistan can prompt Russians for another warm water expedition. If so, the Russia-Afghanistan-India nexus can be extremely dangerous. Iranians too would not sit idle. They may also venture out to fulfil their dreams of Balochistan-Siestan in order to secure the ports of Chabahar and Bandar Abbas and nullify Pakistan’s advantage of Gawadar, Pasni and Ormara.

On the Eastern side, Indian elections may result in the success of BJP. Hardcore Hindutva believers will create problems for Pakistan. ‘Aman Ki Asha’ may turn into ‘Nirasha’. Narindra Moodi will not spare a moment to let Pakistan suffer.

What will Afghan Taliban do? Will Mullah Omar’s call be as effective as before? How will 45% Pashtuns react? Will there be any spring offensive? Will there be another Civil War in Afghanistan? How will American’s react to that? What will be Russia’s and China’s stance? Worst comes to worst what will be Pakistan’s actions/reactions?

It is a pity that our leadership and so-called intelligentsia are involved in frivolous discussions and petty issues. Prime time programs of televisions are littered with pseudo-intellectuals and naive anchors. Hours and hours of silly discussions take place with no end solutions or agreements. Is this the time to indulge in such matters? No! It is the time for the leadership to come forward and show foresight to meet the coming challenges. Mind you, these challenges are right around the corner.

The time is running out fast. A quick and subtle decision is required. Do not break the institutions; it is the time to support each other. It is easier to face a whirlwind but tornados are destructive. Are we ready to face the ‘Twister’?

By:Col (R) Khawar Munir Haroon, SI (M)