Jahangir's World Times First Comprehensive Magazine for students/teachers of competitive exams and general readers as well.
Finally, the cat is out of the bag. After months of dilly-dallying, President Donald Trump has announced his long-awaited policy on South Asia and Afghanistan. In his policy speech, while clearing the way for the deployment of more US troops in Afghanistan, the President backtracked – like many of his U-turns before – on his promise to ‘rapidly end America’s longest war’ and pilloried his country’s major non-NATO ally i.e. Pakistan, for harbouring the ‘agents of chaos’. His words and tone, as well as the content, are reminiscent of the claims and promises made by his predecessors – George W. Bush and Barack H. Obama – as hardly any divergence from the previous US policy on Afghanistan was there. The question that kept the last two American presidents bedevilled appears to have bewildered the current one too: what should the US do about that ‘graveyard of Empires’?
The vivid message that can be construed from what Trump said to his people, and nations across the globe, is: Washington has lost its all options in Afghanistan and now the Trump administration would rather “kill terrorists” than “construct democracies in faraway lands.”
In his speech, Mr Trump appreciated “India’s important contributions to stability in Afghanistan,” and fired a broadside at Pakistan to put the entire blame of US and ISAF forces’ failure in Afghanistan on the country that has suffered colossal losses of life and property in US-led war there. Although he acknowledged that “[t]he Pakistani people have suffered greatly from terrorism and extremism,” yet he again blamed the country of giving “safe haven to agents of chaos, violence and terror.” From his words “Pakistan has much to gain from partnering with our effort in Afghanistan … [and] much to lose by continuing to harbour criminals and terrorists,” the message of ‘do more’ was clearer and stronger than ever before.
With this latest episode, it is clear that the White House has now espoused its most hawkish view on Pakistan. Although pressure tactics to force Pakistan ‘do more’ in Afghan conflict are not new, yet given Trump’s unpredictability, mercurial demeanor and penchant to use hate politics effectively, can we really be an important US ally for much longer?
It will not be easy. From Trump’s utterances, it seems likely that a reset in US-Pakistan relations is not a preferred choice but the ties will remain firmly transactional and there will be possibilities of misunderstanding, frustration and disconsolateness on both sides. The worst case scenario for Pakistan may be the revocation of its major non-NATO ally status and imposition of sanctions against it. But, it won’t be easy as this time there will be a strong public reaction and even the government would find it hard to do anything given the fact that the country and its people have paid a very heavy price for this war. Pakistan had to manage the blowback of a protracted conflict in Afghanistan that resulted in deluge of refugees, flow of drugs and arms and more recently in the shape of terrorist safe havens in eastern Afghanistan from where anti-Pakistan terrorist groups continue to operate and launch attacks inside Pakistan. In this case, Pakistan may cut the American supply route to Afghanistan or revoke overfly permissions.
The Government has taken a strong exception to Trump’s allegations by making it clear that scapegoating Pakistan will not help in stabilizing Afghanistan. However, with growing Indian influence in Trump administration, it is highly unlikely that Pakistan will find many friends in the current administration. So, what should we do?
Amidst the complex state of affairs, we must undertake three things to counter American designs against Pakistan. First of all, we need to lobby in the political arena. Second, our foreign minister must take our friends like China and Russia – both countries have already issued statements in Pakistan’s support – Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Kingdom on board so as to convince President Trump that blame game will help none and that all stakeholders must put in collective efforts to bring a sustainable peace in Afghanistan. His visit to Washington should go ahead as planned and he should carry with him a detailed brief as to just how little Pakistan needs Uncle Sam — and how little sense it makes to bring India into the Afghanistan endgame to the exclusion of Pakistan. And last but not least, if US forces in Afghanistan try to intrude into Pakistan through its tribal areas, a befitting response should be given and it must be shown that Pakistan is not a banana republic. In regional scenario, the best approach would, undoubtedly, be to continue to push for common sense and reciprocal cooperation with Afghanistan. The banned TTP and other anti-Pakistan militant sanctuaries in eastern Afghanistan and the perception that the Afghan intelligence network may be sympathetic to such groups are problems that can be addressed.
Tailpiece: In the hullabaloo created by Trump’s diatribe against Pakistan, one thing that almost everyone missed is his business-minded approach; “India makes billions of dollars in trade with the United States – and ‘we want them to help us more with Afghanistan,” he said. The truth that every country pursues only its own interests through the foreign policy has, indeed, been established once again.
