Jahangir's World Times First Comprehensive Magazine for students/teachers of competitive exams and general readers as well.
There have been many periods of heightened tension between North Korea and the United States over the years, especially in April and August, when South Korea and the United States conducted joint military exercises that North Korea considered preparation for an invasion. A physical engagement between the two nations still looks highly unlikely, but it is something that serious analysts and academics have started to talk about. They believe that although a nuclear war between North Korea and the United States is not imminent, yet the inflammatory rhetoric on both sides is increasing the risk.
On August 08, US President Donald Trump warned North Korea, in his harshest language ever since becoming the president, that it will be “met with fire and fury and frankly power, the likes of which this world has never seen before,” if it does not stop threatening the United States. A North Korean military spokesman retaliated by saying that Pyongyang was considering a plan to fire missiles at Guam — the American territory in the Pacific Ocean that is home to two huge US military bases – with medium-range ballistic missiles to create “enveloping fire.” He further warned that NK would carry out a preemptive strike if there were any signs of US provocation. On August 11, Donald Trump upped the ante by saying: “Military solutions are now fully in place, locked and loaded, should North Korea act unwisely. Hopefully Kim Jong-un will find another path!” This sabre-rattling from both North Korea and the Trump administration has left many people worrying that the world is on the brink of a nuclear war.
Background
North Korea has been rapidly improving its missile programme. In July 2017, it tested two intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) having a range to hit the mainland United States. North Korea also possesses nuclear warheads. While no one knows if they can successfully mount nuclear warheads on one of their ICBMs now, they are certainly closing in on that goal.
The US responded to North Korean missile tests and threats by putting on military shows of force of its own, including flying B-1 bombers over the Korean Peninsula.
South Korea’s Reaction
South Koreans have been living under threats from North Korea for decades. 35 miles from the city of Seoul, North Korea has a range of weapons along the DMZ (Demilitarized Zone) that could do devastating damage and cost thousands of lives. Officials in Seoul, despite a war of words between the US and North Korea, on the one hand, are looking for a peaceful resolution for the tension while they are seeking to improve their defences, on the other. To achieve that, the South Korean president is seeking cooperation from the United States. It was a big topic of a phone call between Moon Jae-in and Donald trump and it was a matter discussed with US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson when he visited the region recently.
Japan’s Response
In Japan, there is a growing sense of discomfort about the threat posed by North Korea. While addressing a ceremony organized to commemorate the 72nd anniversary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki – and it was a strong reminder that Japan is the only country to have suffered atomic attacks – the Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe said that it was Japan’s duty to work ceaselessly in pursuit of a world without nuclear weapons.
There is a strong pacifist vein that runs through the public in Japan as people don’t want war. They want another way to deal with North Korean threat.
China’s Role
Chinese seem divided on the issue. Since all media outlets are state-controlled, news on this issue usually toe the government line by criticizing North Korea for its behaviour while also highlighting Pyongyang’s legitimate security concerns.
There are many critical or derisive voices online on Pyongyang’s fiery words and belligerent actions. But there are also plenty of Chinese analysts who are supportive or even elated to see Pyongyang “stand up to the world’s No. 1 bully,” – the US – as many Chinese feel the US is also trying to contain a rising China on the global stage.
As North Korea’s only global ally, Beijing provides Pyongyang with an economic lifeline. While it certainly doesn’t want to see a nuclear North Korea bring instability to its backyard, China still views it as a strategic buffer between itself and South Korea, where the US maintains a large military presence.
Beijing also fears a massive refugee crisis on its doorstep if the Pyongyang regime collapses.
Nevertheless, there is a risk that North Korea may become more aggressive against South Korea, Japan and others, if Pyongyang thinks that its ability to strike the US with nuclear-capable missiles will deter Washington. Strategists call this the “stability-instability paradox,” when a sophisticated nuclear arsenal brings stability at the strategic level, but, paradoxically enough, instability at lower levels of conflict. There is also a risk that, in a crisis involving South Korea or Japan, North Korea feels that it can create a wedge between them and the United States by threatening Washington with a nuclear attack on the US homeland if it intervenes, or “decoupling.”
Xi Jinping Comes Forward
On August 11, China’s president, Xi Jinping, told Donald Trump in a phone call that all sides should avoid rhetoric or action that would worsen tensions on the Korean peninsula. Reports quoted Xi as saying: “At present, the relevant parties must maintain restraint and avoid words and deeds that would exacerbate the tension on the Korean peninsula.” He said that the North Korean nuclear issue required a peaceful resolution through talks.
Russian Stance
According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, risks of conflict between the US and North Korea turning into a full-fledged war are high and it would involve a huge number of victims.
“The risks are very high, especially regarding the rhetoric [between the two countries]. We hear direct threats to use force. At the same time, US Secretary of Defense Mattis stated once again: Yes, this will involve a huge number of human casualties, and yet talks about a preemptive strike on North Korea, talks in Pyongyang, that it is necessary to strike the island of Guam, where several US military bases are located, do not stop,” Lavrov said.
The Russian top diplomat also said that Moscow is hoping that common sense will prevail in the situation around North Korea despite escalated rhetoric on the part of both Pyongyang and Washington.
Seven Potential Scenarios
With the latest developments, it seems that there is no direct threat to the United States at the moment. The US is unlikely to have international diplomatic support for the kind of military action Trump appears to be suggesting. Nor is it clear Trump is doing anything other than sending a message to Kim that the North Korean leader should rein in his threats. So, amidst all that what the future may hold for this conflict can be seen in the seven potential scenarios discussed hereunder:
1. Preventative War
It’s the “fire and fury” option. In recent days, the US national security adviser, HR McMaster, raised the prospect of “preventative war” as a policy option. The idea would be to administer a sudden hammer blow to North Korean military infrastructure that would substantially set back its ability to attack the US and could trigger a coup or a revolt. The downsides to this option are foreboding: the Kim regime, reportedly, has missiles hidden all over the country, as well as 8,000 big guns trained largely at Seoul, 40 miles across the demilitarised zone. No first strike would come close to disarming Kim Jong-un completely and his retaliation would almost certainly involve mass civilian deaths.
2. Forceful Containment
Some commentators believe that the US and its allies have been too soft, letting North Korea’s military provocations go unpunished. Hence, a forceful containment would involve the “proportionate” use of force to send punitive messages but below the all-out level of a preventative first strike. So, the next intercontinental ballistic missile or nuclear test would be met with the bombing of test sites. The biggest problem with this is that there is no guarantee Pyongyang would make the distinction between limited blows and all-out war and it is hard to see how, once started, escalation could be stopped, leading to all the appalling dangers of the war.
3. Decapitation
Trying to kill the North Korean leadership is part of the joint US-South Korean war plan and the South Koreans reportedly have a special brigade trained to do just that. But, there are a thousand ways it could go wrong. Kim is one of the best guarded targets in the world, and there is no guarantee that someone just as bad or worse would not take his place. Plus it could trigger an all-out war.
4. Increased Economic Pressure
North Korea is already the most economically isolated country on earth, especially after the latest UN sanctions. Turning the screw further would require better Chinese enforcement, but Beijing fears triggering the collapse of the Kim regime. Some US columnists have called for sanctions against Chinese companies breaking the existing embargo, but that could trigger tit-for-tat measures by Beijing and divide the US and China at a critical moment. Furthermore, it is far from clear that it would bring about a change in behaviour from a regime steeped in smuggling and the ideology of self-reliance.
5. Formal Negotiations
The North Korean regime shows no appetite to return to the six-party talks that petered out under the Obama administration. The US has shown its willingness to talk but only on condition that Pyongyang suspends missile testing and accepts that negotiations are aimed at the ultimate elimination of its nuclear weapons programme. These conditions are not acceptable to North Korean regime. The US and its allies believe that formally accepting North Korea as a nuclear weapons state would have implications for non-proliferation around the world, and could provide an incentive for others to follow Pyongyang’s example.
6. Freeze for Freeze
China and Russia have backed a proposal by which Pyongyang would stop missile and nuclear tests while the US, South Korea and their allies would stop military exercises. One objection to this approach has been that it assumes equivalence between South Korea’s defensive precautions, and the North Korea’s defiance of the rest of the world by detonating nuclear bombs. It is not yet clear whether the new South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, is more favourable to the proposal than his predecessor, and no guarantee that Pyongyang would abide by it.
7. Exploratory Talks
American and North Korean officials will meet, and without conditions, to open a channel of communication as a hedge against miscalculation in which a small incident could spiral out of control.
Conclusion
Both the United States and North Korea seem to be at the stage of making threats but not real actions have been taken because taking any actions at this stage will mean a huge catastrophe. Though it is impossible to rule out a possibility of a conflict by misunderstandings, both nations know what their limits are because they have been dealing with each other since 1953, when the Korean War ended with an armistice. The United States and North Korea have managed to keep peace for several decades in this region, and it would have been impossible without very good calculations.
