THE YEMEN CONFLICT

In March 2015, Yemen’s president, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, was forced to flee the country by Zaidi Shia Houthi rebels. The Houthis had the support of some Ali Abdullah Saleh loyalists in the country’s military. To quell the rebels, and to restore Hadi government to power, Saudi Arabia forged a coalition of a dozen countries, including the Gulf Cooperation Council states (except Oman), Egypt and Sudan. More than two years have elapsed since then but peace in Yemen seems as far off as ever. President Hadi and Prime Minister Ahmed Obaid bin Daghir, govern from the port city of Aden, which they had declared a temporary capital. The bulk of Yemen’s northern highlands, and the capital city of Sanaa, remain under the control of the Houthis and their allies.

Introduction

The unrest in Yemen is a mosaic of multifaceted regional, local and international power struggles which are the legacy of recent and long-past events. The following maps aim to illustrate key aspects of this civil war and Yemen’s historical divisions.

Historical Division (1962)

While the concept of Yemen as a distinct territory predates Islam, it has rarely been under the rule of a single government. For much of the past century, the country was split into the northern Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) and the southern People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY). Both were unified in 1990 and the line that separates them reflects the country’s division under British and Ottoman rule. But the cultural differences between the two regions are real – and accentuated by their divergent histories. Culture and politics in the north are coloured by over 1,000 years of Zaidi theocratic rule – a branch of Shi’ism found almost exclusively in Yemen. By contrast, the south was transformed by a century of British influence, beginning in the mid-19th century. Great Britain ran the strategic port of Aden directly as a colony and it struck deals with the heads of the various sultanates, sheikhdoms and emirates that constituted the Federation of South Arabia and the neighbouring Protectorate of South Arabia. The differences between north and south only deepened after the withdrawal of the British in 1967 and the subsequent decades of rule under the PDRY, the only Marxist state in the Arab world.

Religious Divisions

Yemen’s religious divides largely parallel the country’s geography. Zaidi Shi’ism predominates in the northern highlands, alongside a small Isma’ili minority; Sunnis form the majority elsewhere. Historically, sectarianism has been minimal. Intermarriage between Sunnis and Zaidis is considered routine and, until recently, Yemenis of different sects prayed at the same mosques without a second thought. A key factor that effected the emergence of the Houthi movement was the rise of political Islam – like the Muslim Brotherhood-linked Islah Party and Zaidi Houthis.

Current Front Lines

The Houthis and their allies are fighting a mix of Saudi- and Emirati-backed Yemeni government troops, Islamist militants and tribal fighters. The Houthis were forced out of the bulk of Yemen’s southern provinces in summer 2015 and since the start of 2017 they have faced increased pressure along the country’s Red Sea coast.

Key Fronts

While the Houthis and their allies have largely been forced out of the southern provinces, due to heavy air bombardment by the Saudi-led coalition, they continue to dominate elsewhere. In Ta’izz, Yemen’s third largest city, local militias have expelled the Houthis from large sections of the city but have failed to break the fighters’ siege. The Saudi-led coalition has solidified its hold on much of the province of Marib.

Houthi Expansion (2012-2015)

The Houthis emerged out of Yemen’s mountainous far north in 2004 from ‘Believing Youth,’ a revivalist Zaidi Shi’a movement. While initial fighting was largely limited to the Houthi strongholds in mountainous areas in Saada, it soon spread to northern areas of Amran and western areas of al-Jawf. The Houthis gained control of Saada province during the unrest in Yemen in 2011. In September 2014, they seized Sanaa, and swiftly expanded their control south to Ibb province and west to al-Hudayda. Following President Hadi’s forced resignation in January 2015, the Houthis advanced southward to Abyan, Aden and Lahj.

Al-Qaeda’s Presence

Jihadi fighters returning to Yemen from Afghanistan and Iraq have continued the fight in the country’s patchily-governed deserts and mountains. A Yemen-based group, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), is considered one of the most lethal offshoots of al-Qaeda. In the wake of Yemen’s 2011 uprising, AQAP militants, fighting under the banner of Ansar al-Sharia (the ‘Supporters of Islamic Law’), seized swathes of the southern province of Abyan and established Islamic emirates Ja’ar and Zinjibar towns there. They also seized the town of Rada, in al-Bayda, in early 2012. In the tumult unleashed by the Houthi takeover of Sanaa and subsequent Saudi-led coalition airstrikes, AQAP fighters gained renewed operating space. They took control of al-Mukalla, Yemen’s fifth largest port, backed by allied local forces. An Emirati-backed military offensive in spring 2016 succeeded in forcing AQAP to give up control of the city. Nevertheless, the group retains a presence in many areas of the country, including maintaining effective control over parts of Shabwa and Hadramawt provinces.

At the same time, the Yemeni branch of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has increased its profile.

The conflict has pushed Yemen to the brink of famine. Nearly 2.2 million Yemeni children are acutely malnourished and about 70 percent of the population require some form humanitarian aid, according to UNICEF. Today, more than half the population is food-insecure. UN figures estimate that over 10,000 civilians have died from the fighting while many more have died from indirect results of the conflict, such as preventable diseases.

The severity of the crisis varies across the country. Among the worst affected are two of the poorest provinces: al-Hudayda and Ta’izz. The latter has seen some of the worst fighting as the Houthis and their allies have laid siege to the city. Meanwhile, in the Houthis’ native province of Saada, much of the infrastructure has been severely damaged by airstrikes. Yemen’s government has long relied on its declining oil and gas resources for revenues and, while the bulk of the resources were located in the central and eastern provinces of Marib, Shabwa and Hadramawt, the profits went to Sanaa-based elites. The Houthis seized some of the fields early in the conflict, but were subsequently displaced by forces loyal to internationally recognised government over the course of 2015.

The Southern Movement

Yemen’s south, which was independent until 1990, had unsuccessfully attempted to secede from the united Yemen in 1994. Tensions gradually mounted thereafter, until the emergence of the Southern Movement, an umbrella of factions and figures calling for autonomy for the south, in 2007. The Southern Movement initially was most active in the mountainous areas of Yafa, al-Dhale and Radfan. The network built up further support because the government in Sanaa ignored their demands. Although the Movement remained divided in terms of organisation, strategy, leadership and ultimate aims, it benefited from the backing given by Gulf States to anti-Houthi factions. Fighters allied to the Southern Movement are now the dominant force in much of the south.

Federal Division

Proposals for a federal system of governance in Yemen have long been in circulation, both in the aftermath of unification and following Yemen’s 1994 civil war. They picked up considerable steam following the emergence in 2007 of the Southern Movement. A federal division of Yemen was finally agreed in February 2014 by a subcommittee in Yemen’s National Dialogue Conference. This was an ambitious summit which aimed to pave the way for the drafting of a new constitution. The proposal was accepted by most of the country’s political players. However, the Houthis expressed reservations about the final divisions, and some factions of the Southern Movement opposed the split of the former PDRY into two federal regions. The nominally implemented federal division splits Yemen into six regions: Hadramawt (Hadramawt, Mahra and Shabwa provinces); Aden (Abyan, Lahj, al-Dhale and Aden); al-Janad (Ibb and Ta’iiz); Saba (Marib, al-Jawf and al-Bayda); Tihama (al-Hudayda Rayma,Mahwit and Hajja); and Azal (Dhamar, Sanaa, Amran and Saada). However, the precise nature of devolution of powers remains unclear.