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Pakistan-US ties are in doldrums yet again. The last of a series of issues related to US actions in Pakistan last year,
which apparently led to a stalemate between Pakistan and the US, was the US-led Nato forces’ attack on Pakistan’s military check-post on 26 November 2011, at Salala, near Pakistan-Afghanistan border that killed 29 Pakistani soldiers. Since American SEAL’s operation in Abbottabad in which al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden was reportedly killed, the Salala incident was second major assault on Pakistan’s sovereignty. Pakistan unequivocally demanded a formal apology from the US; got evicted the US-led forces from the Shamsi Airfield and suspended supplies to NATO in Afghanistan through Pakistan, the policy stance that was condemned at international level and received a mixed response from different circles inside Pakistan.
The US evacuated the Shamsi Airfield in December 2011. Also, the Obama administration had a difficult time in managing Nato supplies through other routes into Afghanistan but the formal apology was never extended by the US. Pakistan, in protest, boycotted the Bonn Conference held in December 2011 in Germany, to discuss the future course of action in Afghanistan after the US-led forces’ scheduled withdrawal from the region in 2014.
The agreement signed to ensure a long-term commitment of the US in Afghanistan beyond 2014. What can be considered as alarming for Pakistan is one, the agreement relegated the possibility of consulting or involving Pakistan in any future strategy in Afghanistan; and second, the US commitment to provide Afghanistan with an unconditional support in the wake of ‘any outside aggression’.
Subsequently, the diplomatic interactions between the US and Pakistani officials failed to reach a consensus ensuing from four dominant policy issues: US insistence on the suspected presence of current leader of al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, in Pakistan and Pakistan military’s alleged support to Haqqani network, US apology on Salala incident and the continued drone attacks. To make matter worse, both the leaderships were deterministic in their approach and demonstrated a hard-line stance.
Apparently, with the terms growingly turning detrimental with Pakistan, the US vehemently turned to Pakistan’s immediate neighbours, Afghanistan and India. With Afghanistan, the US signed a 10-year Strategic Partnership agreement on 1 May 2012 and the next week the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, went to India to reinforce US-India partnership. ‘The Enduring Strategic Partnership Agreement’ inked between US President Barack Obama and Afghan President Hamid Karzai in Kabul, though is largely bilateral in nature, it is Pakistan-specific by implications. The agreement signed to ensure a long-term commitment of the US in Afghanistan beyond 2014. What can be considered as alarming for Pakistan is one, the agreement relegated the possibility of consulting or involving Pakistan in any future strategy in Afghanistan; and second, the US commitment to provide Afghanistan with an unconditional support in the wake of ‘any outside aggression’. Although there is no mention of Pakistan as an ‘outside aggressor’ in the text, the agreement, in words of US Ambassador to Afghanistan Ryan C. Crocker, expects to be taken note of ‘the United State’s inherent right of self-defence’ in the region.
The agreement, first-ever of its kind for Afghanistan, reinforced India’s position as a responsible and major stakeholder in peace and future stability and security in Afghanistan.
Hillary Clinton’s visit to India, on the other hand, sought assurances from India to reduce the oil imports from Iran and to pursue more assertive policy stance in East Asia as the two countries aspire to increase their influence in East Asian markets. For past one year, India has gradually turned more active in East Asia apparently meeting the US demands. To Pakistan’s further dismay, the US Secretary of State, during a press conference in India, alleged that the US has information about Ayman al-Zawahiri’s presence in Pakistan.
Besides developments at the US-Afghanistan and US-India bilateral fronts, India is steadily increasing its influence in Afghanistan. The country has signed a Strategic Partnership agreement with Pakistan’s western neighbour in October 2011. The agreement, first-ever of its kind for Afghanistan, reinforced India’s position as a responsible and major stakeholder in peace and future stability and security in Afghanistan. Prior to Hillary Clinton’s visit to India, Afghan Foreign Minister Zalmay Rasool visited New Delhi, in May, to launch the Partnership Council in line with the strategic agreement. The two countries appeared to have found common grounds and developed a consensus on future course of the bilateral relationship. India, on its part, designed this policy to gain accessibility and greater influence in Afghanistan while the foreign troops are expected to withdraw from the country in 2014.
In future, especially while dealing with the US, Pakistan ought to make rational, accommodative and timely policy choices in order to avoid imperceptive and emotion-based decisions.
