Japan’s Nuclear Woes

The Japanese government has ordered all nuclear facilities to upgrade their safety procedures (CNN) and is reviewing whether to remove a safety agency from the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry because it may be too cozy with the nuclear industry.

Two weeks following Japan’s March 11 earthquake, at least four of the six reactors at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant are unsalvageable, and radioactive iodine found in the ocean nearby is more than 4,000 times the legal limit. Ideas for dealing with the reactors include pouring concrete over the entire facility. Officials are still struggling to learn the extent of the damage’ there are concerns the reactors are still leaking’ and some experts say it could be months before things are under control. There are calls to widen the evacuation zone, but some evacuated residents are already being turned away from shelters over radiation fears.

The Japanese government has ordered all nuclear facilities to upgrade their safety procedures (CNN) and is reviewing whether to remove a safety agency from the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry because it may be too cozy with the nuclear industry. Similar concerns following the US Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010 also led to a restructuring of agencies involved in safety. A nuclear physicist at Princeton University also voices concerns over the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, calling it a “textbook example of the problem of ‘regulatory capture’–in which an industry gains control of an agency meant to regulate it.”

The earthquake/tsunami not only irreparably damaged the Fukushima Daiichi plant (NYT), but many other nuclear and thermal power plants were shut down. In the short term, Japan is bracing for rolling blackouts that could last more than a year. “Until all the lost or suspended generating capacity is replaced, economists say, factories will operate at reduced levels, untold numbers of cars and other products will go unbuilt, and legions of shoppers will cut back their buying’ all taking a big toll on Japan’s economy,” writes the New York Times’ David Jolly.

Over the long term, experts say Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) failures have made things difficult for nuclear power in Japan. A 2007 report showed the facility had at least a 10 per cent chance of being overrun by a tsunami within a 50-year span, but the company did not change its safety plan. Activists are raising concerns about the Hamaoka plant near Tokyo, operated by Chubu Electric Power Co., and there are moves to halt construction of some new nuclear plants.

With few domestic energy resources, Japan had hoped to increase nuclear power from its current one-third to 50 per cent of generation by mid-century. However, nuclear expert Charles Ferguson notes that research shows a potential to provide about two-thirds of its electricity from renewable sources such as wind and solar by mid-century, which could keep nuclear power at its current share.

To help address current power problems, TEPCO and other utilities plan to increase output from thermal power plants, with liquefied natural gas (LNG) expected to make up half of lost generation, oil to fuel another 30 per cent, and the rest by coal.

But importing more energy could roll back Japan’s decades-long push for energy security and prove expensive. Oil is over $100 a barrel. LNG already makes up about 40 per cent of Japanese power generation and is currently a tight international market pushing up prices. Demand for LNG is expected to reach a new record this year as nations from Europe to Asia look to replace greenhouse-gas intensive coal and possibly close older nuclear power reactors.

“While natural gas seems like the preferred substitute in the wake of the nuclear power shortfall, the nation is likely to witness investments in the area of renewable energy for a sustainable future,” say business analyst Datamonitor.