Growing Tensions in East Asia

In view of the growing weight of the East Asian countries in the world economy and their deepening economic linkages with the rest of the world, threats to peace and security in East Asia have grave implications for global economic prosperity.

The growing tensions in East Asia are a matter of serious concern not only for the regional countries like China, Japan, South Korea, Russia and members of the ASEAN but also for major non-regional powers like the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) whose security and economic interests are closely linked with developments in the region. In view of the growing weight of the East Asian countries in the world economy and their deepening economic linkages with the rest of the world, threats to peace and security in East Asia have grave implications for global economic prosperity. It was in recognition of the growing economic and strategic importance of East Asia that the US decided last year to rebalance its forces so as to deploy about 60 per cent of its combat ships in the Asia-Pacific region by 2020. The move was also seen by the observers generally as aimed at containing China.

China is now the second biggest economy in the world followed by Japan. In 2012, it overtook the US as the world’s biggest trading nation in goods with the combined total of its exports and imports reaching the amount of US$ 3.87 trillion as against US$ 3.82 trillion for the US. South Korea and many of the ASEAN members with their vibrant economies are a source of strength and dynamism in the world economy. So what happens in East Asia deeply affects the rest of the world including Pakistan.

The current tensions in East Asia to a large extent are rooted in territorial disputes between various regional countries aggravated by historical grievances and growing rivalry between the US and China. These territorial disputes can be divided into four main categories: China’s territorial disputes with some of the ASEAN countries including Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei over Spratly and the Paracel islands and the demarcation of the territorial waters in South China Sea, the dispute between China and Japan over uninhabited Diaoyu or Senkaku islands in East China Sea, the territorial dispute between Japan and South Korea over a group of islets called Dokdo by South Korea and Takeshima by Japan in the Sea of Japan and the territorial dispute between Russia and Japan over Kuril islands.

Besides the territorial disputes and the Sino-US rivalry, the situation on the Korean peninsula, especially North Korea’s nuclear weapon programme is another major source of tensions in the Far East. Further, although the relations between China and Taiwan have witnessed an historic detente during the tenure of Taiwan’s incumbent president, Ma Ying-jeou, and the two sides continue to expand their economic relations, the possibility of a sudden turn for the worse cannot be totally ruled out.

 The current tensions in East Asia to a large extent are rooted in territorial disputes between various regional countries aggravated by historical grievances and growing rivalry between the US and China.
 In April last year tensions rose between the Philippines, which has a mutual defence treaty with the US, and China because of the confrontation between the vessels of the two countries over fishing rights in Scarborough shoal, a ring of mostly submerged rocks that both Beijing and Manila claim. Although the two countries managed to de-escalate the incident, the dispute continues to simmer. Subsequently the US, apart from holding joint military exercises with Vietnam towards the end of April last year, declared that developments in South China Sea were a matter of concern for its national interest. China, of course, deeply resents what it sees as American interference in the regional affairs.

Tensions again rose in South China Sea when Vietnam’s parliament passed a maritime law in June last year asserting the country’s claims to Spratly and Paracel islands. China called it a ‘serious violation’ of its sovereignty. The two countries also have conflicting claims for oil and gas exploration in the area. The disputes continue to cause bitterness in relations between China and Vietnam particularly as the latter looks to the US for military and diplomatic support.

In August last year, tensions flared up in North-East Asia when South Korea president Lee Myung-bak visited Dokdo, a group of islets in the Sea of Japan, claimed by both Japan and South Korea. In protest Japan recalled its ambassador from Seoul. After the visit to Dokdo, the South Korean president criticised Japan for not redressing the grievances of Korean women forced into sexual slavery during the war. He also demanded an apology from Japan for its colonial rule of Korea.

A much more serious development was the intensification of the dispute over the ownership of the Diaoyu or Senkaku islands between China and Japan in September last year when Japan nationalised them. The development led inevitably to widespread anti-Japan protests in cities across China. The US has taken no position on the issue of sovereignty over the Senkaku islands but has noted that they are currently administered by Japan and fall under its protection. It has also opposed any unilateral action to ‘undermine Japanese administration’ of the islands.

The tensions between China and Japan continued to rise with the incursions of Chinese aircraft and vessels close to the Senkaku islands and the scrambling of the Japanese air force jets to intercept them in December 2012 and January 2013. In a more serious development, Japan announced on January 30 that a Chinese naval frigate had locked a fire control radar on a Japanese vessel. While describing the action as dangerous and provocative, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that Tokyo would not close the window of dialogue with China. The Japanese accusation was denied by China which stated that its ship had not used ‘fire control radar.’ In a separate development, two Russian fighter jets briefly entered the Japanese airspace near the disputed Kuril islands on February 7.

 Pakistan which besides its vital strategic partnership with China has close friendly relations and growing economic and commercial ties with many other East Asian countries like Japan, South Korea and the ASEAN must observe carefully the growing tensions in East Asia to safeguard its national interests.
 As if the territorial disputes and the Sino-US rivalry were not enough to raise tensions in East Asia, North Korea on December 12 last year launched a rocket into space and put a rudimentary satellite into orbit. Both South Korea and Japan condemned the launch. The UN Security Council adopted a resolution unanimously to step up sanctions on North Korea. In an act of defiance, North Korea tested a nuclear device with a yield of six to 7 kilotons on February 12 this year. The test was generally condemned by the international community. The UN Security Council in a press statement said that the test posed ‘a clear threat to international peace and security’ and decided to begin work immediately on appropriate measures against North Korea in a Security Council resolution.
Pakistan which besides its vital strategic partnership with China has close friendly relations and growing economic and commercial ties with many other East Asian countries like Japan, South Korea and the ASEAN must observe carefully the growing tensions in East Asia to safeguard its national interests.

It goes without saying that the East Asian nations themselves must exercise restraint in handling their disputes and adopt peaceful means for their resolution.

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