Jahangir's World Times First Comprehensive Magazine for students/teachers of competitive exams and general readers as well.
Contest for Central Asia Both Putin and the West are wooing Central Asian leaders in energy-rich Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. If Russia weakens economically, they will want at least a foot in the Western camp.
President Vladimir Putin’s attempts to use the BRICS group of emerging powers to mitigate isolation by the West have also faltered.
Nato Revived
Just when it looked to be losing relevance, after Afghanistan Drawdown, the US-led military alliance is back in business. An increase in allied air patrols and war games, showing the flag in Poland and the Baltic states, is on the agenda, and Warsaw wants faster deployment of US missile defence systems in central Europe. Sweden and Finland may increase security efforts and cooperate more closely with Nato.
Energy Diversification
China Factor
The diplomatic alliance between Russia and China could see either rapprochement through a stronger energy partnership or a cooling if China distances itself more from Putin’s behaviour and sees less benefit in closer ties with an economically weakened and relatively isolated Moscow.
US Leadership
Despite his disengagement from wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and strategic ‘pivot’ towards Asia, events have pushed Obama back into the old-fashioned role of ‘Leader of the Free World’ in an East-West crisis in Europe. The crisis has swept aside European anger over US spying on global communications and put a new premium on cooperation. Europeans had appealed Obama to sell them shale gas, and both sides agreed to speed talks on a transatlantic free trade and investment pact.
German Leadership
The Ukraine affair has cemented Berlin’s leadership role in Europe. Germany is already the dominant economic power, calling the shots in the Eurozone crisis, and Chancellor Angela Merkel has become Europe’s main interlocutor with Putin. German willingness to reduce energy dependency on Russia will be the yardstick of how far the rest of the EU goes.
EU United
The European Union has been reunited, at least for now, by the return of a common external threat. This may have helped EU leaders overcome some long-running disputes.
Some EU diplomats say Poland may speed up slow-motion moves to join the euro, seeking sanctuary in Europe’s inner core. Polish entry would hasten the spread of the single currency to almost all EU countries.
Contest for Central Asia
Both Putin and the West are wooing Central Asian leaders in energy-rich Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. If Russia weakens economically, they will want at least a foot in the Western camp.
US-Russian Cooperation
Some cooperation on global security issues will continue because Moscow has an interest in keeping it on track to avoid greater isolation. But tensions are possible over Syria, Iran, Afghanistan or North Korea, and Moscow has levers it could activate such as contracts to supply $300 air defence missiles to Damascus or Tehran.
Putin’s Future
Russia’s leader is near the peak of his popularity, riding a wave of nationalist pride over Crimea. However, instability may grow if he comes under pressure from magnates angry at losing value on their businesses, forfeiting foreign investment in Russia and facing travel restrictions and asset freezes in the West.
