Pakistan Votes 2013

For the very first time in its history, Pakistan is on the verge of transition as PPPP-led government has completed its full 5-year term and soon the elections will be held to choose their successors. Keeping in view the full-throttle electioneering, parties’ luring manifestos and youth’s role in bringing about the much-trumpeted ‘CHANGE’, Jahangir’s World Times is going to publish the expert opinions of renowned political analysts, journalists and TV anchors.

Q.1: Slogan of ‘Change’ is going to be the focal point of coming elections or it is just rhetoric?  

Yes, there is an urge among the masses to embrace a change because they are fed up of the politics of exploitation only. In fact, the slogan of change has become the focal point of general elections-2013.

Exactly a change is not going to happen in Pakistan in future. Because the slogan of change is raised by PTI but they are not in a position to get majority presently it seems PML (N) will be in the lead.

Political numbers game tells us clearly that there would not be any substantial change. But if we see from the angle of nature and direction of Pakistani politics there will be change.

No doubt, people want ‘Change’ and they will vote for any party who can assure them a real ‘Change’ in the system. But, I’m not foreseeing any revolutionary or big change in the coming elections.

We do need change but that will come only through a surgical operation rooting out its systemic perversities and structural fault lines.  To deal with our current malaise, papering the cracks will not do.

Well, a lot of change has already occurred; we have an independent judiciary, a vibrant media, an assertive ECP and new electoral rolls made by NADRA. I am not saying it will change our political scene altogether but we will go ahead in a positive direction.

Q. 2. Is youth going to be a decisive factor in the upcoming general elections 2013?

Yes, the youth can emerge as a decisive factor in the election-2013 because there are nearly 300 million young voters enrolled in the new electoral rolls. Their role will be ultimately decisive if they come up to cast their vote.

Only two political parties ‘PTI and PML (N)’ took   major steps to attract youth. But I cannot say decisively that there won’t be any role of youth but one thing is sure that now the era of ideological politics is over.

Youth, as a political factor, will be determined by how many young men and women actually come out to vote. If they go to the polling stations big numbers will come out and begin to vote then I think PTI is going to have the first advantage.

No doubt, people want ‘Change’ and they will vote for any party who can assure them a real ‘Change’ in the system. But, I’m not foreseeing any revolutionary or big change in the coming elections.

We do need change but that will come only through a surgical operation rooting out its systemic perversities and structural fault lines.  To deal with our current malaise, papering the cracks will not do.

Yes, the youth would be a decisive factor this time because they have a strong will to bring a real change. They are trying to convince their families that they vote to fulfil this fevered dream.

Q. 3: If the elections result in a hung parliament, how the next government deal with major issues like energy crisis, ailing economy and troubled foreign relations?

No, I think it would be premature to say so. In fact, it depends, largely, on the public participation in the election process. If we have a high turnout then one party may get majority.

I think a single party or an alliance will get the majority and the next government will not be as dependent on ‘coalition’ as PPP has been throughout their tenure. I hope the new government will tackle these issues successfully.

Yes, I think there would be a hung parliament. This time, Imran Khan’s PTI is the only new element. From the numbers angle, no big changes will take place. But, surely, the next parliament would not be dysfunctional.

Yes, it seems that we will have a hung parliament. I agree that the coalition government has weak decision making capabilities but it cannot be so all the time. Coalition governments are successful in many countries.

I hope not. We need one party in control of the country. For decades, we have had a parliamentary system without our parliament ever functioning as a ‘full sovereign body.’

Presently, it seems that the elections will result in a hung parliament but we can’t rule out anything out of the box; it can happen.

Q. 4: How would the nationalists influence the results especially after joining hands with PML (N)?

In my opinion, they will influence the results but only if they successfully capitalise the anti-PPP sentiments in Balochistan and Sindh. So PML (N) and nationalists need to work on that.

Yes, it will influence the results in few constituencies. For instance, Mumtaz Bhutto and Raisanis can bring some seats for PML (N).

We must see why nationalist parties are inclined to PML (N). Actually, Sindhi and Baloch nationalists have been deeply disappointed by President Zardari. So, they consider PML (N) a better option. Definitely, it’s a setback to PPP.

Better wait and see. Nationalism itself is fast becoming a rare commodity. Like the rulers, the subjects too are becoming money-minded. Elections will be decided by money pumped in the process by hook and crook.

Yes, to some extent it would. But PML (N) and nationalists’ alliance should be seen in a broader perspective. These ‘traditionally anti-centre forces’ are now joining hands with a mainstream party i.e. PML (N). So, it’s going to be their victory too.

Can PTI be a surprise factor in these elections?

I think people do trust and Imran Khan and believe in his slogan of change. But, the ground realities and constituency-based politics suggest otherwise. He will not be in a position to bring about a real change.

I don’t think that PTI will be a ‘surprise package’. We must understand that ideological politics is irrelevant nowadays and people are more concerned about their urgent needs. So, PTI would be unable to surprise in the electoral results.

Well, Pakistan is a country of surprises. But the rules of political science suggest otherwise. PTI may muster vote and get seats but this is not the election where any party is going to sweep.

I don’t think so. In my opinion, PTI will not be able to give any surprise. It would be wrong to assume that all the newly-registered voters will vote for go to PTI.

The people are looking for a surprise. But are they themselves going to give surprise? They must come out of their drawing rooms and make the difference.

Yes, PTI can give the surprise. Actually, PTI is focusing on becoming symbol of change. They are trying for active participation of the people in the election especially of youth. If it happens, we may have a surprise.