CENSUS 2017 A WAY TO ‘KNOW THYSELF’!

Background

The first population census conducted in the areas now comprising Pakistan was held in 1881. Later on, censuses were conducted every ten years regularly in the year ending at one. After independence, the first two censuses in Pakistan were conducted in 1951 and 1961, respectively; however, the third one was delayed due to political environment in the country and war with India, and it was conducted in 1972 (instead of 1971). The fourth census was carried out in March 1981 while the fifth also met the same fate as the third one, as it was taken in March 1998, (instead of 1991) due to certain reasons. The sixth headcount was to be carried out in 2008. But, again, it was inordinately delayed. And, after the Supreme Court of Pakistan ordered, the government carried out the activity this year. As these lines are being written, only the provisional results have been issued by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

Introduction

A threadbare analysis of the census data and a demographic research-evaluation of the results thereupon has always remained a daunting task for the officials. There are two approaches to census: one is “de jure” in which persons are counted at their usual places of residence, and the other is “de facto” approach by which persons are counted where they are found on the official census data. In 1998 census, both the approaches were applied simultaneously during the activity, but the data was tabulated and published on de jure basis for its comparability over time.

Who conducts census?

First three censuses were conducted by the Census Organization, which was established in 1950 as a part of Ministry of Home Affairs. However, after the 1972 headcount, a Census Organization was established on a permanent basis and was made an attached department of the Interior Ministry so as to maintain expertise, experience and continuity which used to be lost after every census – as was the case in 1951 and 1961. With the creation of Registration

Organization in 1973, as an attached department of Ministry of Interior and also headed by Census Commissioner, both the departments were merged in 1976 to be called “Census & Registration Organization”. In March 1978, the “Census & Registration Organization” was split into two separate departments and Population Census Organization was placed under the Statistics Division which remains as such thereafter due to declaration of General Statistics (Re-organization) Act, 2011. Now the conduct of Census is the responsibility of Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

Legality for the Census

The Census (Population & Housing) is a Federal subject as listed at Sl. NO. 38 of Federal Legislation list, Part-1, Fourth Schedule, Constitution of Pakistan. The seats in the National Assembly are allocated to each Province/FATA and Islamabad Capital Territory on the basis of population in accordance with the last preceding census officially published under Article-51(3) of the Constitution. Further, distribution of funds between the Federation and the Provinces is done through National Finance Commission. Article-160(2) speaks about the formation of the National Finance Commission which also uses census figures. The quota for recruitment to federal posts is also worked out on the basis of population ratios as given by the census. Establishment Division’s O.M. No. 8/9/72, TRV, dated 31st August 1973, refers in this regard. First 5 censuses were undertaken with the legal cover of Census Ordinance, 1959, amended from time to time. The 6th Population and Housing Census has been conducted under the legal cover of General Statistics (Re-organization) Act, 2011.

Population Census 2017

Pakistan Bureau of Statistics recently declared provisional results of the Sixth Population and Housing Census 2017. The results suggest an increase of 57% in the total population of the country (excluding Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan) during the last 19 years, and the total population at present stands at 207,774,520 till the end of June 2017 as compared to 132,362,279 in 1998. Of all the provinces and regions, the Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT), recorded the highest population annual growth rate of 4.91%, while the other provinces stand at a maximum of 2%. While Sindh and Punjab have observed a decline in their population growth rates, the latter still has the largest population – 110 million people, with Sindh following on the second spot with a population of 48 million. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan, although lag behind in numbers, have registered an increase in their respective population growth rates. There is a surprising increase in male population, which now stands at 106.449 million, outnumbering the previously leading female gender now recording a population of 101.314 million. The males in our society constitute 51% of the total population, while women are 48.6% of the latter. 0.4% of the population is identified as transgender.

The ratio of urbanization has increased from 32.52% in 1998 to 36.38% in 2017. Sindh is the most urbanized province of Pakistan with 52.02% of its population based in urban areas.

Criticism

The census has remained full of political criticism and controversies. Lack of availability of required finances along with military support in terms of human-resource allocation for ensuring security during the process also led to a delay in the conduct of this main activity. The unaccounted for population growth in Pakistan becomes even more problematic because of security issues. The policymakers of Pakistan are clueless about the Afghan, Bihari, Bengali, and Burmese – to name a few communities – now living permanently in Pakistan.

Planning for the future

The population census is essential to determine the future policy to be drawn up by the authorities in terms of social, economic and development arenas. On the other hand, it determines the political future of the country and that of the political parties, as it explains the demographic shift from rural to urban areas as well as inter-province movement which can prove to be a game-changer in the general elections, since seats in the National Assembly will be divided on the basis of the new demographics.

The new population figure would also change the employment quota allocated to provinces in government jobs. The allocation of financial resources to provinces would also be affected.

Most political parties have expressed their serious reservations on the results of the census. Correct tabulation of census results is indispensable to gain both political and provincial acceptance of the census. A census quoting wrong numbers can mislead to devising inappropriate socioeconomic and developmental policies, change the political infrastructure via wrong allocation of seats to National Assembly, and disturb the allocation of financial resources and jobs to the provinces and many more. It must now be ensured by the government that the data provided is correct and results are tabulated error-free, in order to set the future policy directions right for Pakistan.