THE FUTURE OF EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD (DIS)ORDER

By: Dr Sattar Qayyum

Since the outbreak of the euro crisis in 2009-10, Europe has been witnessing contradictory trends and developments ranging from efforts to contain the spread of systemic risk in the financial sector to calls for the creation of a European pillar of social rights, and neoliberalism still reigns supreme in EU’s economic policy agenda. In the meantime, extreme nationalism and xenophobia have permeated several European countries, challenging in the process not just globalization, but the foundation of an open, liberal society. Yet it’s not just the state of Europe that raises concerns about the future political and social order; in the United States, Trump’s militaristic attitude and jingoistic diatribes have put the world on a very dangerous path. 

Today, Europe is facing severe challenges on several fronts that can affect the future of the continent on the whole. The Brexit conundrum; the push for independence of Catalonia in Spain and the presence of 90 Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) politicians in the Bundestag are the strongest indications that the views of the far right have become quite acceptable among the Europeans. And, this trend along with the spectre of illiberal democracy is haunting Europe. Now, whether or not Europe’s road to integration can proceed any more the way it has over the last 20 or so years, is highly debatable.

Europe in crisis

The future of Europe is definitely one of multispeed and multitier, although Jean-Claude Juncker, the President of the European Commission, in his State of the Union Address in Brussels on September 13, made the case for a more united, stronger and democratic Europe, which includes an all-powerful president and an EU army, while an even far more impressive and comprehensive plan for a profound transformation of Europe was laid out by French president Emmanuel Macron in his speech at Sorbonne University in Paris on September 26. Macron’s vision has the potential to turn Europe into the centre of the world, but it is most unlikely that Germans would go along with some of his key ideas, such as creating a centralized eurozone budget and having a European finance minister.

Yet, these are precisely the things that are needed to revamp Europe as the spectre of another euro crisis is a distinct possibility in the near future. Take, for instance, the issue of public debt. In Italy, it stands over 130 percent, while France’s public debt rose to the highest level in the earlier part of 2017, reaching close to cent percent of GDP. Moreover, Italy’s banking crisis remains unresolved, and Europe’s banking system in general remains quite fragile. As such, the next financial crisis could crash those economies, and that means a euro crisis 10 times bigger than the previous one. In fact, a crisis in Italy – the eurozone’s third largest economy – is waiting to happen. Central banks in Europe are also embarking on what is called the “Great Unwind” – the winding-down of quantitative easing programmes that have sustained the continent’s economies, financial markets and banking systems since the outbreak of the euro crisis. What happens next is anyone’s guess. Will this development put a brake on EU economic boost? Most economists believe it will. And what would happen if Europe went into a recession? Extreme nationalism and fraudulent populism, xenophobia and authoritarianism will surely be further strengthened.

1. The Catalonian Referendum 

Most pro-EU analysts call the referendum a very unfortunate development as they worry that things could get quite ugly as Spain’s central government will definitely not allow Catalan secession to take place. It is unlikely to recognize Catalonian independence even if the referendum does take place and a “yes” vote wins. Although Catalans have the right to “self-determination,” it might not be a good thing in this case. What drives the current sentiment towards secession among Catalans seems to come down to money, in that Catalonia does not want to have its taxes go to the poor regions of the country. In any case, Spain and Catalonia will be much worse off without one another.

Another issue is the place of an independent Catalonia in the European Union. The Catalans would probably have to start from square one. Some years ago, when the issue of independence flared up in Catalonia, some government leaders insisted that an independent Catalonia would remain in the eurozone, but that seems more of a wishful thinking rather than a likely outcome. The EU has no interest in seeing Spain split up and will make life quite difficult for the Catalans, if they do succeed in getting a divorce from Spain.

2. The rise of AfD in Germany

Everyone had expected Angela Merkel to win a fourth term as chancellor of Germany. The surprising element is how well Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) did, although most polls anticipated that it could indeed reach the 10 percent mark. AfD started out as an anti-euro party, drawing support even among German academics, but once the euro crisis subsided, its leadership turned to immigration and became something of a single-issue party with an anti-Islam platform. It is clearly a racist, xenophobic political party, and has moved ever so closely to fascism since the far-right wing of the party pushed aside the “moderates.” Still, the question remains whether AfD represents a “reactionary populism” or something more akin to neo-Nazism like Golden Dawn in Greece.

A closer look reveals that there is still something of an ideological gap separating Germany’s AfD from neo-Nazis like Greece’s Golden Dawn, but the gap can certainly close in the future if the extremist elements inside AfD take complete control of the party. Before it entered Parliament, AfD was mainly a single-issue party, but that will surely change now that it has entered the Bundestag. It will now be compelled to take a stance on many issues and the party’s ideological profile will have to be crystallized if it wishes to make an impact on German politics and society. Be that as it may, the fact that a political party that calls on Germans to view WWII Nazi soldiers as heroes entered the parliament for the first time in almost 60 years by having captured almost 13 percent of the popular vote is a shocking development, and makes one wonder if Nazism is making a comeback in Germany.

The shifting political landscape

There are several factors that can probably explain the changing political landscape in Europe. The first – and by far the most important – is a sense of profound uncertainty about the economic future as jobs get harder to come by and no longer provide long-term security as they used to during the era of industrial capitalism. People also sense that the social contract is dying, if it’s not already dead, and that their standard of living will most likely decline. This is especially the case among the youth everywhere, both in the core and the periphery of the European Union. Hence, people are turning their back on the traditional political parties. Something similar happened even in Germany, where both Merkel’s party and the SDP lost significant shares of votes. Merkel received only 33 percent of the vote, which suggests that not only does she not have a popular mandate for charting the future course of Germany, but makes a mockery of the view of those who like to see her these days as the leader of the “free world.” The issues of immigration and globalization are also surely major factors behind the shifting political landscape in Europe, and they will become even more contentious and divisive issues in the years ahead.

The future of Europe’s left

It all depends on what one means by the “left” these days. The communist left (Marxism-Leninism, vanguardism and all that stuff) is surely a thing of the past, and the social democratic left is in deep crisis in most European countries because of profound changes in the structure of contemporary capitalist economies and societies. As far as the future of the left is concerned, it should be very clear that it rests with unified mass movements that can articulate a concrete vision about post-capitalist society. Both command economies and neoliberal capitalism have failed to create fair, just, equitable and harmonizing social orders, but it is still unknown what form or shape a socialist society needs to take under an advanced stage of capitalism. In the meantime, the left needs to contest neoliberalism, but must also come to terms with economic globalization. Neither free trade nor protectionism should be the only options left to those bold enough to envision an alternative social order based on cooperation, prosperity and solidarity. In sum, the future of the left rests with its ability to provide answers to specific questions about economic and political arrangements under an alternative social order away from possessive individualism, unlimited accumulation of wealth and brutal competition for survival and economic prosperity.