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Pakistan remains an important player in the region and has vital cards to foil any attempt at what has been termed as strategic encirclement.
The two-day visit of Afghan President Hamid Karazi to India, which started on October 4, 2011, ended up with an establishment of Indo-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership duly signed by the visiting Afghan President and the Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh in New Delhi. Coming on the heels of a strained phase in Pakistan-US relations and Afghanistan’s strong verbal attacks against Pakistan, the visit assumed huge significance from political and strategic point of view. The reading of text of the Strategic Partnership between Kabul and New Delhi also affirms the notion of a new chapter in the bilateral history of the two countries.
Given this background, the visit of Chinese Vice Premier, MengJianzhu, to Islamabad and his assurance of the Chinese support to Pakistan through thick and thin was read as an act of balancing the skewed regional position, which progressively wore anti-Pakistan colour. These developments have led the political commentators to conclude that South Asia is all set to experience the shifting of political alignments with far-reaching implications for the end-game in Afghanistan.
While we leave the comment on the fallout of growing Indo-Afghanistan strategic relationship and what policy option Pakistan has got to protect its vital interests in the region for another day, it is in the fitness of things to analyse the broad contours of much-talked about Indo-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership.
The document is an outcome of sustained engagement between Kabul and New Delhi spread over years and builds upon the May visit of the Indian Prime Minister to Afghanistan.The Strategic Partnership draws on the Treaty of Friendship singed on January 04, 1950 between the Government of India and the Royal Government of Afghanistan, subsequent Agreements and joint statements. The Treaty states: ‘There shall be everlasting peace and friendship between the two Governments who will further strive to maintain and strengthen the cordial relations existing between the people of their respective countries.” The document is multi-dimensional in nature and covers such diverse areas as political & security cooperation, trade & economic cooperation, capacity development & education, social, cultural, civil society & people-to-people relations.
Political & security cooperation: Both sides agreed to forge close political cooperation, consult and cooperate at the United Nations and other regional, international and multilateral fora. Joint initiatives include support for reform and expansion of the UNSC including support for the Indian bid for a permanent seat in the Council, cooperation in fighting out terrorism, organized crime, illegal trafficking in narcotics, money laundering etc., Indian willingness to train, equip and undertake capacity building programmes for Afghan National Security Forces.
Trade & economic cooperation: The Strategic Partnership seeks to ‘deepening and diversifying cooperation in sectors such as agriculture, rural development, mining, industry, energy, information technology, communications, transport, including civil aviation, and any other areas that the Sides may agree on. ‘It also ‘envisages assisting Afghanistan emerge as a trade, transportation and energy hub connecting Central and South Asia and enabling free and more unfettered transport and transit linkages. It focuses on development of regional infrastructure projects; helps facilitate the integration of the Afghan economy within the South Asian and global economies by opening markets for Afghan and Indian products for mutual benefit; and strengthens regional cooperation under SAARC.
Capacity development & Education: Both countries sought expansion of cooperation in the areas of capacity building of the Afghan government officials and educational exchange programmes.
(a) Responding to the requirements of Afghanistan, India will explore avenues to expand scholarships in medical, engineering and management institutes of India;
(b) The Sides will also encourage and facilitate annual student exchange programmes at the school and university levels.
As part of its capacity building support for the Afghan government, India will continue and expand technical, training and other capacity building support to the various departments in the three branches of government, including the Executive, Judiciary and the Parliament.
In response to Afghanistan’s need to strengthen its administration and governance at national and sub-national levels, India offers its experience of governance at the national, state, district and local body levels, and technical assistance in setting up a permanent, career-based civil service suitable for Afghan realities.
What is important is that both countries also agreed to put in place a framework of Partnership Council to be headed by the Foreign Ministers of both India and Afghanistan to make sure that the contents of Strategic Partnership are implemented to the satisfaction of both sides. The Council, which will consist of separate Joint Working Groups on each broad area, will hold annual meeting to review the progress and the status of implementation. It would present its recommendations to the heads of both governments to accelerate the process of implementation in this regard. The existing dialogue mechanism between Kabul and New Delhi would automatically become part of the Council’s mandate and agenda.
While the development during President Karazi’s visit to India must have been watched very closely by Pakistan because of its legitimate security concerns, there is no need to get jittery on this count. When asked to comment on the establishment of Strategic Partnership between India and Afghanistan, Prime Minister Gilani was spot on when he said that both countries were sovereign nations and could enter into any kind of cooperation with each other and that Pakistan was not perturbed by the development. Pakistan remains an important player in the region and has vital cards to foil any attempt at what has been termed as ‘strategic encirclement.
Afghanistan Trade, Exports and Imports Statistics
There is not enough information and guaranteed statistics available about the economy of Afghanistan, but here are some estimates:
Exports: $603 million (2008)
Imports: $8.27 billion (2008)
Exports-to-GDP ratio: 3,5 % (2008)
Imports-to-GDP ratio: 47,6 % (2008)
Trade-to-GDP ratio: 51,1 % (2008)
(Note: Trade-to-GDP ratio = (Exports + Imports) / GDP)
Exports Partners
The major export partners of Afghanistan include (figures as of 2008):
India 23.5%
Pakistan 17.7%
US 16.5%
Tajikistan 12.8%
Netherlands 6.9%
imports Partners
The major import partners of Afghanistan include (figures as of 2008):
Pakistan 36%
US 9.3%
Germany 7.5%
India 6.9%
Afghanistan Trade, Exports and Imports Commodities
The following are the major commodities that form the basis of Afghanistan’s economy:
Export commodities include opium, fruits and nuts, handwoven carpets, wool, cotton, hides and pelts, precious and semi-precious gems.
Imports include machinery and other capital goods, food, textiles, petroleum products.
