Challenging Times on Diplomatic Front

It remains a challenge for Pakistan to get its perspective understood by Afghanistan , the United States and the international community at large.

Hussain Haqqani’s resignation as Ambassador to Washington in the aftermath of ‘Memogate scandal’ increased the challenges of  Pakistan foreign policy continued to face in the month of November. With the tension in the Pak-US relations still prevalent, the change of guard in Washington ‘s embassy of Pakistan means no to normalization in relations between the two countries in a near future. The new ambassador-designate to the United States, Sherry Rehman, has to first `prepare’ to leave for Washington and then further to take some time to settle down herself and `acclimatize’ in the DC. By that time, Bonn Conference on December 5, would already have taken decisions on the future stability and endgame in Afghanistan . There is already a tendency to give the onus of responsibility of what is happening in Afghanistan to Pakistan .  Pakistan has been trying to make it very clear that it has no interest in Afghanistan beyond that of any neighbour in having a peaceful and stable dispensation in Afghanistan . But at the same time, Pakistan also wants a stable peaceful government in Afghanistan which allows it     ( Pakistan ) to function peacefully in a stable environment. The responsibility lies in Kabul and it is for Kabul to decide what role would they want Pakistan to play to support them. President Asif Zardari made it clear to Afghan President Hamid Karzai in Istanbul in the month of November during the tri-lateral summit between Pakistan , Turkey and Afghanistan . But still, it remains a challenge for Pakistan to get its perspective understood by Afghanistan , the United States and the international community at large. However, with change in Pakistan Embassy Washington , the challenge of harmonizing forward-looking policy between Pakistan and the United States viz-a-viz Afghanistan will remain unmet before the Bonn Conference.

The decades-old challenge of normalization with India remains perennial for Pakistan . A series of meetings and interaction between foreign secretaries, foreign ministers and then Prime Ministers of Pakistan and India in the month of November in Maldives on the sideline of SAARC Summit witnessed improvement in atmospherics without any substantial progress in dispute resolution. Pakistan  and  India   are finally moving on the path of trade and economic diplomacy for ensuring peace and development. The gestures from the two sides seem eye-catching but policies still remain cautious. The decade-old mistrust between the two arch-rivals will take time to recede. But the successive interactions at various levels have so far set a direction for future. That exactly has been the outcome viz-a-viz promotion of trade and economic relations between the two countries. The Commerce Secretaries’ of Pakistan and India during their meeting in Delhi in mid-November set an ambitious work plan as well as a road map for clearing hurdles in the way of enhanced trade relations. Both sides plan to completely normalize their trade by the end of 2012. The `historic’ visit of a large trade delegation headed by Commerce Minister of Pakistan Makhdoom Amin Fahim to India in October-November appeared to have made a few significant break throughs in easing trade restrictions between the two countries. The visit set a stage for long-awaited declaration of Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to India  by  Pakistan. Subsequently, a federal cabinet meeting in principle approved grant of MFN status to India . However, certain reservations are being expressed in   Pakistan  from various circles.

Pakistan  is also planning to convert its trade from positive list to negative list. It simply means that there would be a list of negative items which cannot be imported from   India and all other goods will be importable to  Pakistan   from India. Pakistan  currently only allows Indian imports that are part of a ‘positive list’ of 1,948 items. Another 12,000 items are on the ‘negative list’, meaning banned for import.

The challenge for Pakistan to get remove non-tariff barriers from increasing its exports to  India is however still there. The general perception in  Pakistan has been that despite grant of MFN status to   Pakistan  by  India , the bilateral trade has been in favour of  India . Now  India for its part, has agreed to examine its non-tariff barriers. To promote trade, both tariff and non-tariff barriers (NTBs) need to be reduced/removed. The two governments have established a Working Group (WG) specifically dedicated to address and resolve clearly identified sector-specific barriers to trade.

The issue of enhancing Regional trade and commerce activity is also moving slowly. The SAARC Member States signed South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) during the 12thSAARC Summit held at  Islamabad on 6th  January 2004. As per Trade Liberalization Programme under SAFTA, the Non-Least Developed Countries (LDCs) ( Sri Lanka , India and  Pakistan ) would reduce their tariff to 0-5% by 2013, whereas the LDCs would reduce tariff to 0-5% by 2016. Each   Member   State  retains a ‘Sensitive Lists” which is not offered for confessional treatment. Presently, Pakistan has placed 1169 tariff lines in its Sensitive List. At the SAARC platform, Working Group for reduction in Sensitive List was created to work out the modalities for reduction in the Sensitive Lists. The Group has held three meetings and accordingly, all the member states have agreed to reduce their Sensitive Lists at least by 20%.

Pakistan  has now decided to reduce this list. A Reduction of 233 tariff lines which is an obligation for  Pakistan under SAFTA will reduce  Pakistan ‘s Sensitive List from 1169 to 936 tariff lines. A list of 233 items has been prepared in consultations with stakeholders. The process is in a final stage. The two big economies i.e  Pakistan   and India will certainly benefit and promote their bilateral trade as well.

The quest for having energy relations with Central Asia and Russia is still a lingering challenge for Pakistan ‘s foreign policy. President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly  Berdymukhammedov paid a state visit to Pakistan in mid-november and signed a number agreements including Gas Sale-Purchase agreements for the proposed TAPI(Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline. But the dream of gas import from Turkmensitan is still pending for one or the other reasons. Similarly much cherished projects of connecting energy rich central asia with energy deficit south asia called CASA-1000 has yet to see a life. The Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced $500 million for CASA 1000 in his meeting with Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani in Moscow early November on the sideline of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. But like TAPI, this projects has also to pass through Afghanistan where instability is still a big challenge.

Russia has also been engaging Pakistan The very proposal of having a quadrilateral mechanism including Pakistan was an initiative from the Russian leaders as it was Russia to ask for such a mechanism. Russia wanted a direct interaction with this region after having serious security and narco issues. The terrorists’ activities in Chechnya and its outfall up to Moscow has been a matter of grave concern of Russian leadership. The epicenter of global narco-trade in this region is also a serious concern for the Russians. The direct linkage between terrorism and narcotic trade and easy drug money for terrorist financing can best be handled by a close cooperation in the region. With a close cooperation and friendly-relations with Pakistan , Russia feels comfortable on controlling terror and drugs.

The changing geo-political scenario in the Subcontinent is also a factor for Russia looking towards Pakistan . Unlike Pakistan , India remained an ally of the former Soviet Union in the cold war era. With the fall of Soviet Union , India is now fast becoming an ally and partner with the West. Indo-US nuclear agreement could be one of such examples wherein India is changing its posture from being pro-Russian to the pro-West one. Such a scenario is providing Russia an option to look towards Pakistan .

In the global perspective, Russia supports Indian bid for a UN Security Council seat in permanent category. However, Russia does not feel comfortable with the formation of G-4 and its joint lobbying. G-4 has been lobbying jointly for India , Japan , Germany and Brazil for a UN Security Council seat in the permanent category/ However, Russia is little bit uncomfortable with Japanese bid to secure a Security Council seat in permanent category.

In terms of economic development, Russia also has a lot of opportunities in this region. Russia also wants a foothold in terms of development component of the relationship. There is lot of scope for economic cooperation between Russia and Pakistan . CASA-1000 is not a project in isolation as there are similar other projects related to energy and connectivity where Russia and the Russian companies can invest and earn profits. The regional projects like Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project, Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project, Gul train project between Pakistan-Iran-Turkey can be a consideration for investment in future. The development and reconstruction process inside Afghanistan after return of complete normalcy in the war-torn country will provide unprecedented opportunities for both Russia and Pakistan to work together.

Pakistan, too, is looking towards this new-emerging relationship with hope and optimism. Russia , still being a power and a huge country can offer a lot in security and economic cooperation. Russia is a big market and can become an easy market for Pakistani products which are relatively cheaper than the western and Japanese products. Around 80 per cent of the Russian population can be catered by cheap Pakistani products. Russia , as discussed earlier, can be a leader in energy connectivity in this region wherein Pakistan has a lot to benefit. Pakistan is also looking for up gradation of Pakistan Steel Mills in Karachi and seeking Russian cooperation in this regard. There is a lot of room for expansion of Pakistan Steel Mills from its current production capacity of 1.1 m tons. With the Russian cooperation, Pakistan wants expansion from 1.1 m tons productivity to 1.5m tons in its first phase of expansion till 2014. In the second phase of expansion, Pakistan wants to increase its productivity to 3 m tons. Pakistan seeks similar cooperation from Russia in further advancing its industrial growth. The Russian Premier Putin also announced in the same meeting with Prime Minister Gillani $500 million for expansion of Pakistan Steel Mills.

Pakistan also wants Russian cooperation in the area of security. Being a victim of domestic terror wherein the terrorist blowing huge human and material damages, Pakistan is in pursuit of anti-terror equipment to effectively contain terror machine unleashed all across the country. In this regards, the Russian leadership has already offered cooperation in this regard. For example, the Russians have offered to supply MI-17 helicopters to Pakistan . Similarly, the Russians have also offered military uniforms, shows and light equipment in a bid to enhance capacity of Pakistani law-enforcement agencies in their fight against terrorism.

Being still a friend of India , Russia can be a balancing factor in Pak-India equation. President Asif Zardari is repeatedly terming Russia as a factor for peace and security in this region. A proactive role by Russia in South Asian affairs can bring peace and harmony and pave the way for outstanding disputes between Pakistan and India .

In these ups and downs of foreign policy, the real challenge for Pakistan ‘s foreign policy remains the endgame in Afghanistan . Pakistan is opposed to the idea of a regional security structure. We have to wait for the outcome of Bonn Conference to whether the international community allays fears of Pakistan or increase challenges for Pakistan.