{"id":8664,"date":"2014-05-05T12:57:44","date_gmt":"2014-05-05T07:57:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/jworldtimes.com\/old-site\/jwt2015\/?p=8664"},"modified":"2017-05-30T12:48:07","modified_gmt":"2017-05-30T07:48:07","slug":"10-ways-the-ukraine-crisis-may-change-the-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.jworldtimes.com\/old-site\/internationalaffairs\/10-ways-the-ukraine-crisis-may-change-the-world\/","title":{"rendered":"10 WAYS THE UKRAINE CRISIS MAY CHANGE THE WORLD"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Contest for Central Asia Both Putin and the West are wooing Central Asian leaders in energy-rich Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. If Russia weakens economically, they will want at least a foot in the Western camp.<\/span><\/h3>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Russia Diminished<\/span><\/b><\/div>\n
\nRussia’s role in international affairs is diminished, at least temporarily. Moscow has been de facto excluded from the Group of Eight industrialised powers (G-8). Its bids to join the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the International Energy Agency (IEA) are frozen. Western summits with Moscow are cancelled until further notice.
\nPresident Vladimir Putin’s attempts to use the BRICS group of emerging powers to mitigate isolation by the West have also faltered.<\/div>\n

Nato Revived<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Just when it looked to be losing relevance, after Afghanistan Drawdown, the US-led military alliance is back in business. An increase in allied air patrols and war games, showing the flag in Poland and the Baltic states, is on the agenda, and Warsaw wants faster deployment of US missile defence systems in central Europe. Sweden and Finland may increase security efforts and cooperate more closely with Nato.<\/p>\n


\nEnergy Diversification<\/span><\/b><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
The energy map of Europe is being redrawn with accelerated action to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas. EU states are set to build more liquefied natural gas terminals, upgrade pipeline networks and grids and expand a southern gas supplies through Georgia and Turkey to southern and central Europe. Europe may now look to tap its own shale gas reserves and expand nuclear power, despite environmental concerns.<\/div>\n

China Factor<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

The diplomatic alliance between Russia and China could see either rapprochement through a stronger energy partnership or a cooling if China distances itself more from Putin’s behaviour and sees less benefit in closer ties with an economically weakened and relatively isolated Moscow.<\/p>\n

US Leadership<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Despite his disengagement from wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and strategic ‘pivot’ towards Asia, events have pushed Obama back into the old-fashioned role of ‘Leader of the Free World’\u009d in an East-West crisis in Europe. The crisis has swept aside European anger over US spying on global communications and put a new premium on cooperation. Europeans had appealed Obama to sell them shale gas, and both sides agreed to speed talks on a transatlantic free trade and investment pact.<\/p>\n

German Leadership<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

The Ukraine affair has cemented Berlin’s leadership role in Europe. Germany is already the dominant economic power, calling the shots in the Eurozone crisis, and Chancellor Angela Merkel has become Europe’s main interlocutor with Putin. German willingness to reduce energy dependency on Russia will be the yardstick of how far the rest of the EU goes.<\/p>\n

EU United<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

The European Union has been reunited, at least for now, by the return of a common external threat. This may have helped EU leaders overcome some long-running disputes.
\nSome EU diplomats say Poland may speed up slow-motion moves to join the euro, seeking sanctuary in Europe’s inner core. Polish entry would hasten the spread of the single currency to almost all EU countries.<\/p>\n

Contest for Central Asia<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Both Putin and the West are wooing Central Asian leaders in energy-rich Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. If Russia weakens economically, they will want at least a foot in the Western camp.<\/p>\n

US-Russian Cooperation<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Some cooperation on global security issues will continue because Moscow has an interest in keeping it on track to avoid greater isolation. But tensions are possible over Syria, Iran, Afghanistan or North Korea, and Moscow has levers it could activate such as contracts to supply $300 air defence missiles to Damascus or Tehran.<\/p>\n

Putin’s Future<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Russia’s leader is near the peak of his popularity, riding a wave of nationalist pride over Crimea. However, instability may grow if he comes under pressure from magnates angry at losing value on their businesses, forfeiting foreign investment in Russia and facing travel restrictions and asset freezes in the West.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Contest for Central Asia Both Putin and the West are wooing Central Asian leaders in energy-rich Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. If Russia weakens economically, they will want at least a foot in the Western camp. Russia Diminished Russia’s role in international affairs is diminished, at least temporarily. Moscow has been de facto excluded from …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":149,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1,7602],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jworldtimes.com\/old-site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8664"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jworldtimes.com\/old-site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jworldtimes.com\/old-site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jworldtimes.com\/old-site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/149"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jworldtimes.com\/old-site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8664"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.jworldtimes.com\/old-site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8664\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jworldtimes.com\/old-site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8664"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jworldtimes.com\/old-site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8664"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jworldtimes.com\/old-site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8664"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}